The new NFL season lies just around the corner, meaning the fantasy football news cycle cranks up and hype trains begin to leave the station.
The Dallas Cowboys started last season on a rough note at 3-5 before the situation took a nosedive when quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending injury. The team finished the campaign at 7-10 and reloaded with some solid offseason acquisitions to try and compete in a loaded NFC East. With a new head coach at the helm in Brian Schottenheimer, what will the offense look like for fantasy football purposes?
Will CeeDee Lamb stay healthy and produce another elite fantasy season? Will George Pickens’ play back up the hype for the young wideout seen in recent weeks? Find all the answers below!
How will a new head coach impact the Cowboys?
The Dallas Cowboys served as one of the NFL’s top regular-season teams over the last several seasons but never quite held their own come playoff time. Punchlines aside, the fantasy football season only runs through Week 17 (or Week 18 depending on the league) and this offense produced some high-scoring seasons both on the real gridiron and the virtual one. There’s a new sheriff down in Dallas as offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer replaced Mike McCarthy as the franchise’s head coach, but can his staff replicate some of those elite offensive seasons to support fantasy superstars?
Schottenheimer’s resume extends to 1997 when he began his coaching career, but his most pertinent positions were spent as offensive coordinator for four different franchises over 14 seasons. The 51-year-old deployed a run-heavy approach during his stint with the New York Jets from before 2006-11 before shifting to a more balanced attack with the St. Louis Rams between 2012-14. The one commonality of his teams during those eras is that they didn’t rank particularly well in offensive production aside from a couple of seasons, so it’s somewhat easy to see why it took a few years for Schottenheimer to get another look as an offensive coordinator.
When the Seattle Seahawks did hire him in 2018, they posted three straight seasons inside the top-10 scoring teams while prioritizing the run game under head coach Pete Carroll. The team did make the playoffs in each of those years with Russell Wilson at quarterback — supposedly Schottenheimer fell in the camp of “let Russ cook,” though that mantra never truly came to fruition. Still, that stint with Seattle was encouraging compared to Schottenheimer’s prior stops.
He finally had the opportunity to unleash a great quarterback once he took over as the Cowboys’ OC in 2023. Now, it’s important to remember McCarthy still called the plays rather than Schottenheimer over the last two seasons. However, we can garner some knowledge for the future based on the Cowboys numbers from those campaigns. The offense looked great in 2023 and finished first in scoring as well as fifth in total yardage with a healthy cast. While Dallas’ numbers weren’t as impressive last season, keep in mind that Prescott missed half the year and Lamb spent several games sidelined as well — at 17th in yardage and 21st in scoring, the team arguably overperformed considering the overall lack of talent on the field.
Whether a result of the NFL’s transition to a pass-happy league or an effort to compensate for a rather poor defense which allowed plenty of points, the Cowboys heavily favored the pass over Schottenheimer’s tenure as offensive coordinator with the eighth and fourth-most attempts. With a healthy cast, the passing game produced the third-most yards and most passing touchdowns in 2023 before ranking 11th and 13th in each category last year. It’s safe to say Schottenheimer’s offense will air the ball out again since the Cowboys ranked 14th and 24th in rush attempts in that span; plus their backfield feels devoid of game-changing talent.
The good news is that Schottenheimer is well-acquainted with Dallas’ personnel and has already produced great seasons from Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. Per a report from the team back in February, the new head coach will also call the plays himself. He’s joined on staff by offensive coordinator Klayton Adams, who spent the last two years as the offensive line coach for the Arizona Cardinals, a team which ranked seventh in rushing yards and the NFL’s second-best yards per carry average. Adams’ tendencies are more of an unknown but he’ll help design the game plan each week.
Fantasy star fallout
Quarterback
Dak Prescott
Cue the memes — it’s Dak Prescott season. While many NFL fans would say the highlight of the Cowboys’ quarterback’s career was the clip of him warming up with hip rotations before a game a couple of years ago, but people forget Prescott boasts plenty of fantasy-worthy seasons. He finished as a top-12 quarterback in five of his eight years in the league and only fell below that threshold in seasons he played 12 games or fewer. Prescott also averaged 20.0 FPPG or greater in four of his campaigns, certainly QB1 production for fantasy rosters.
During Schottenheimer’s first year as Dallas’ OC, Prescott finished as the overall QB3 and per-game QB5 despite lacking real weapons at the skill positions besides Lamb and Ferguson. He completed 69.5% of his passes for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns with just nine interceptions while receiving some hype in the MVP race and averaging 20.2 FPPG. Last year wasn’t quite the same as Prescott struggled through his eight appearances with the second-lowest completion percentage of his career at 64.7%. He threw for just 1,978 yards, 11 scores and eight picks to finish with a career-worst 14.6 FPPG.
Now, things are once again looking up for the multi-time Pro Bowler. Lamb and Ferguson should be fully healthy, and the team added a great second receiver by trading for George Pickens. Those three players should eat up plenty of targets on a high-volume passing offense, plus Lamb and Pickens’ games complement each other quite nicely. The lack of a real run game to set up the pass definitely hurts, but sheer volume should make up for it on an offense which ought to bounce back to at least league-average, if not top-10. It’s fair to feel bearish about Schottenheimer as a winning coach, but his offense should produce fantasy points for Prescott and his pass catchers.
Running backs
Javonte Williams
To be perfectly transparent, the Cowboys’ backfield situation looks rather dire as one of the worst position groups among the entire NFL. The depth chart includes Javonte Williams (inefficient with a serious injury history), Miles Sanders (inefficient who can’t stay healthy in recent years), Jaydon Blue (fifth-round rookie), Phil Mafah (seventh-round rookie) and Deuce Vaughn (5-foot-6 with virtually no NFL production to his name). Somehow, Williams feels like the best bet to take hold of the starting job, which doesn’t exactly bode well for the team’s ground game.
Williams was a second-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and played a great first season for the Denver Broncos as part of a backfield committee with Melvin Gordon. Unfortunately, he shredded his knee the following year with an ACL and MCL tear which sidelined the young back for the remainder of the campaign and effectively sapped his efficiency metrics ever since. Following the injury, Williams posted fantasy production of 11.2 and 9.3 FPPG held up by 47 and 52 catches in each of those seasons. He rushed for 513 yards on 139 carries last year for an average of 3.7 yards per carry, far from effective work on the ground as he ended his season as the overall RB30 and per-game RB40.
At just 25 years old, Williams’ career faces a crossroads. This thin backfield provides his best opportunity to seize a starting job and see the field, and he’s well-built to absorb short-yardage and goal-line work at 5-foot-10 and 220 pounds. The argument for Williams in fantasy is predicated on volume and touchdowns, so if he can serve as the primary back on the ground, he may see enough opportunities to provide RB2-caliber production assuming the offense rebounds closer to its prior form. Behind an offensive line projected to take a step forward, his efficiency might even bounce back above 4.0 yards per carry, but Blue will likely take much of the receiving work Williams thrives on. If the former Bronco can’t succeed in Dallas, he’s bound for relegation as a warm body at best for backfield depth throughout the remainder of his career.
Jaydon Blue
A fifth-round pick out of Texas, Jaydon Blue feels like the X-factor in this Cowboys offense. The historic hit rate on players of his draft capital doesn’t project significant success for the 21-year-old, but Blue brings some upside if he can get on the field as a rookie. In such a thin running back room, he’s positioned to capitalize on his surroundings and earn a role from the jump as a change-of-pace receiving back at the very least.
At 5-foot-9, 196 pounds, Blue isn’t built for a workhorse role by any means but much of the tape speaks for itself. The former Longhorn can break defenders down in the open field and brings impressive lateral quickness and burst to make the first man miss and escape for long runs. With a 4.38 40-yard dash, Blue does possess the speed to break loose. His numbers at Texas weren’t the most impressive with 730 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground over the course of 15 games, but Blue was efficient enough at 5.4 yards per carry and only started in five contests. He was more exciting as a threat in the receiving game with 42 catches for 368 yards and six scores, so it’s absolutely worth noting he racked up over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 14 total touchdowns in his last year against SEC competition.
Blue may not have a role right away, but there’s a world where he becomes a sort of Jahmyr Gibbs-lite for this Dallas offense as their primary pass-catching back who sees lots of targets and gets told to go to work in space. He probably won’t get a ton of carries in the run game due to his slight frame, but if he’s efficient with those he does see then the rookie can provide value for fantasy managers despite that limited volume thanks to his athleticism and receiving ability. He’s a stash for sure with tons of potential if everything goes right in his first pro season.
Wide receivers
CeeDee Lamb
His value may have declined after a disappointing-by-his-standards 2024, but it’s not that long ago that CeeDee Lamb posted one of the most impressive wide receiver seasons in recent memory, if not NFL history. The Oklahoma product posted an overall and per-game WR1 finish back in 2023 with 23.7 FPPG, the third-most of all players in the game. Lamb saw an astounding 181 targets that year, catching 135 for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns as the engine which made the Cowboys’ offense go.
Now, expecting a similar year from Lamb does seem a tad unrealistic now that he’s sharing the field with Pickens, his best co-star since Amari Cooper was in Dallas. However, Lamb hasn’t averaged fewer than 17.6 FPPG over the last three seasons and saw at least 150 targets in every one of those campaigns. He should continue to earn an elite target share with somewhere around 140 this time around, and the 26-year-old remains a virtual lock to record a top-12 finish at his position. After all, he finished as the overall WR8 last season despite missing two contests and slotted in as the per-game WR9 with 1,194 yards and six scores on 101 grabs.
Very few NFL wideouts ever reach Lamb’s caliber and have the potential to finish as the fantasy WR1 — he’s truly one of the elite in this league and sits just behind Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase in tier lists for a reason. With the big-bodied Pickens on the outside to bring a physical presence and field-stretching capabilities, Lamb can slide into the slot more often to gobble up targets and work defenders on short and medium routes. The most interesting part is that Lamb and Pickens’ reception heat maps essentially fill in the gaps for each other since the former works across the middle of the field in the short game while the latter excels almost exclusively outside the numbers and further past the line of scrimmage. This pairing looks fun and should benefit both.
George Pickens
Now for Dallas’ prized offseason acquisition. George Pickens feels like the embodiment of an alpha receiver thanks to his 6-foot-3 frame, burner downfield speed and penchant for highlight grabs — plus his attitude and love of manhandling defensive backs makes him a fan-favorite. Once the trade occurred, he shot up draft boards and instantly became a hot commodity in fantasy football circles.
There’s plenty to like about Pickens despite his per-game averages of 9.8, 12.3 and 11.7 fantasy points across his first three NFL seasons. Sure, his best overall finish came as the WR30 in 2023, but the 24-year-old tallied receiving lines of 63-1140-5 and 59-900-3 over his last two campaigns. There’s obviously untapped talent there, which is why Pickens has felt like a prime candidate for a real breakout season with better quarterback play or a role in a more exciting offense.
Now a member of the Cowboys, Pickens could see the benefits of both those things as he catches passes from Prescott alongside an elite talent like Lamb who should draw plenty of defensive attention. Since Pickens won’t operate as the offense’s clear-cut primary target as he did with the Pittsburgh Steelers, he should get better matchups and benefit from his co-star’s gravity. Although Lamb remains a clear alpha in the receiving game, Pickens can still see over 100 or more targets as the second option in a high-volume passing offense. There’s more scoring upside here than in Pittsburgh’s grinding attack, so a career-high in touchdowns looks like a distinct possibility. The hype train has already departed the station, but for good reason — Pickens looks primed for at least a top-24 finish and the best fantasy season of his young career.
Tight end
Jake Ferguson
This tight end isn’t exactly a star, but he showed plenty of potential a couple of years ago and can excel as an underrated fantasy asset if health permits. Jake Ferguson stands at a massive 6-foot-5 and 244 pounds, so he’s a huge target for Prescott, a quarterback who typically loves to target his tight ends. That’s a recipe for success in itself, but there’s proof the former fourth-round pick can contribute in fantasy football on a weekly basis.
Ferguson didn’t see much action as a rookie in 2022 but burst onto the scene in 2023 once Dalton Schultz left with 71 catches for 761 yards and five touchdowns on 102 targets. He averaged a respectable 10.4 FPPG, good for the per-game TE10 slot and an overall TE9 finish after suiting up for all 17 games. Last season wasn’t as kind to the 26-year-old as he missed three games with a concussion and MCL sprain, catching 59 balls for 494 yards without a single trip to the end zone. All in all, Ferguson averaged 7.5 FPPG and finished as the overall TE25 and per-game TE24.
That finish was quite disappointing for fantasy manager who expected a true breakout campaign, but there’s hope for Ferguson heading into the upcoming season. Outside of Lamb and Pickens, there aren’t many real threats in the receiving game which means there are still plenty of targets available in this high-volume attack. While Pickens does add a new element in the red zone, Ferguson should still see his fair share of looks inside the 20-yard line and feels due for some positive regression in the scoring column. His ADP may rise closer to the season’s start, but he’s still probably drafted too low given the circumstances.
Fringe names to watch
There aren’t many other names to keep an eye on in this offense, at least not on a consistent basis. Either of Miles Sanders or Phil Mafah could potentially earn a backfield role, though both feel like a longer shot than Williams or Blue to do so. As for wideouts, Jalen Tolbert averaged a career-best 8.9 FPPG last season with 49 catches for 610 yards and seven touchdowns, but the odds are stacked against him to provide consistent fantasy production at even the FLEX level since Lamb, Pickens and Ferguson should eat up the vast majority of targets. The volume simply won’t be there for Tolbert barring unforeseen circumstances, even in a pass-happy scheme.
