The 2024 Chicago Bears finished the season with 566 pass attempts, the 13th-most in the league. Caleb Williams did not turn water into wine, nor feed the masses with just loaves of bread and fish during his rookie season. But he was not the bust that many shouted from their parents’ basements. Williams completed 62.5% of his passes for 3,541 yards with 20 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He was sacked 68 times, though, for 466 yards, both league-worsts.
The Bears’ defense was 13th in scoring defense at 21.8 points per game, and were far from the Monsters of Midway. Chicago had a point differential of -60 points last season. As a result, Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron are gone and, in comes Ben Johnson, who has been anointed as the second coming in Chicago. Hopefully, this version is better than the one from last season.
Bears target share overview
Everything starts and ends with Ben Johnson. As offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions the last three seasons, Detroit was fifth, fifth, and first in points scored. He turned Jared Goff into a thing. Goff was once known as the guy who didn’t know where the sun rises and sets. Now, he’s the guy that completed 72.4% of his passes last season for 4,629 yard and 37 touchdowns with 12 interceptions last season.
This isn’t a plug-and-succeed situation. There are so many variables to consider. Detroit had a top-10 offensive line and weapons galore at the skill positions.
But Chicago is doing its darndest to replicate it to a T. The offensive line has been upgraded with the acquisitions of Jonah Jackson, Drew Dalman and Joe Thuney. PFF now has the Bears offensive line ranked fourth.
The weapons on offense were upgraded with the selection of tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III in the draft.
The track record of success for Johnson with quarterback development and offensive playcalling cannot be questioned. Will that translate to the Chicago situation? The probabilities are skewed towards yes, but nothing in life is guaranteed.
Now, let’s take a a look at how the targets should be distributed in Chicago this season.
Wide receivers
Last season, D. J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze all garnered over 100 targets. Moore led the group with 140 targets and a 26.6% target share. Allen had a 27.2% target share and 121 targets, but missed two games. Odunze finished with 101 targets and a 19.2% target share.
Allen is a free agent and still hasn’t signed with a team. Chicago selected Burden in the second round of the draft. He’s 5′ 11″, 208 pounds and has been mentioned as occupying the Amon-Ra St. Brown role for Johnson. He’s a rookie, so soaking up all of Allen’s target share is optimistic. More than likely, Odunze could see a signficant increases while Burden ends up a smidge below 20%.
Olamide Zaccheaus is currently listed as a starter on Ourlads, and he could begin the season as a starter, but he was only signed for one year and $1.5 million, so Burden will likely occupy that role sooner than later.
Tight ends
Cole Kmet received 55 targets and a 10.4% target share. The Bears selected Loveland with the 10th overall pick, so they obviously think highly of him. The questions are how many snaps will he get his rookie season? Will the Bears employ 12 personnel often? How big of a role will Kmet have?
When Ben Johnson was in Detroit, the Lions selected tight end Sam LaPorta with the 34th overall pick. He garnered 120 targets his rookie season, producing 86 receptions, 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. LaPorta had a 21.1% target share that season, but that was before the emergence of Jameson Williams, so LaPorta was the second option in the passing game.
The Bears have more weapons in the passing game, so a 20% target share seems too optimistic for Loveland.
Running backs
D’Andre Swift received 52 targets and a 9.9% target share last season. Roschon Johnson was second with 20 targets. Both are back and sit atop the depth chart.
Last season for Detroit, Jahmyr Gibbs received 63 targets and a 12.1% target share. Swift is no Gibbs.
Swift and Johnson do have a history, as Swift was a member of the Lions in 2022. Swift did have a 15.1% target share that season, but he also only started five of the last 11 games after starting the first three games of the season.
