Headed into yesterday’s MLB trade deadline, it looked likely that the Chicago White Sox would be sellers, with outfielder Luis Robert Jr. figuring to be one of the deadline’s most coveted names. But Chicago merely traded veteran starter Adrian Houser, keeping the core of the much-improved team largely intact.
One member of that core, rookie hurler Shane Smith, will toe the rubber in tonight’s 9:38 p.m. ET series opener against the Los Angeles Angels, who will start veteran Tyler Anderson.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels prediction, preview
It wouldn’t be unfair to say that July changed the White Sox’s trade deadline plan entirely. Since June 20, Chicago has gone a respectable 17-17, with a .723 OPS that would rank above the league median across the full season and a pitching staff that posted an elite 3.76 ERA. At 40-69, the White Sox have long been effectively eliminated from playoff contention, but with a promising young core — that, at age 27, Robert still fits — they can hardly be blamed for not blowing it up. The Angels, meanwhile, have gone 6-7 since the All-Star break with an average pitching staff and an average offense, though they’ve faced a rather difficult second-half schedule so far. Los Angeles snagged a pair of relievers to bolster the league’s fourth-worst bullpen.
Losing Houser, who had a 2.10 ERA in 11 starts for Chicago, might hurt, especially given Smith’s poor form as of late. Through the first 13 starts of his career, Smith had a 2.37 ERA, but since then, he’s given up 23 earned runs in 18.1 innings, ballooning his mark to 4.26, and the White Sox will monitor his innings moving forward. He hasn’t pitched since July 11 after spraining his ankle in training shortly after the All-Star break, so it’s doubtful that he’ll go more than four or five innings tonight, and those innings might be tough given that the Angels hit the ball hard and chase infrequently, his two biggest weaknesses. Thankfully for Chicago, he’ll be backed up by an above-average bullpen.
Anderson has had a similarly rough go of it in recent weeks. Through his first eight outings, the two-time All-Star had a solid 2.58 ERA but has pitched to a 5.64 mark (and, more worryingly, a 5.48 FIP) over his last 13 starts. The southpaw ranks in just the sixth percentile in overall pitching run value, the second percentile in fastball velocity, and the sixth percentile in ground ball rate, and while he’s avoided conceding hard contact, it’s not like the White Sox have been known as mashers anyway. Chicago has been elite at getting the ball up, so it is well-suited to take advantage of a Los Angeles outfield that has ranked second-to-last league-wide in fielding runs above average.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels pick, best bet
Best Bet: Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+113)
The red-hot White Sox offense has gotten to Cristopher Sánchez, Shota Imanaga, and Shane Baz in the last week and a half, so it shouldn’t have any problem getting to Anderson. The Angels’ new relievers, Luis García and Andrew Chafin, aren’t good enough to make a huge difference.
Strong Lean: Shane Smith U3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Though Smith has a league-average strikeout rate and Los Angeles strikes out at the league’s second-highest clip, Smith has recorded two or fewer strikeouts in three of his last five games. In his first game in nearly a month, coming off of an off day, and with an in-form bullpen behind him, the team will play it very conservative.
