The Astros and Red Sox both made moves at the trade deadline that they hope set them up to make their way into the American League playoffs. At the deadline, the Astros added mostly to their offense, while the Red Sox fortified their pitching depth. The Astros are 4 1/2 games up in the AL West coming into their three-game set in Boston, while the Red Sox currently hold the second Wild Card spot, one game ahead of the Mariners, 1 1/2 games behind the Yankees, and five games behind the Blue Jays.
The Red Sox have won four of their last five games after taking two of three in Minnesota to start the week. They lost two of three to both the Cubs and Phillies coming out of the All-Star break, but have bounced back to win back-to-back series against the Dodgers and Twins.
The Astros are also coming off a series win after taking two of three in Houston against the Nationals. It was a good bounceback for the Astros after they were swept in a four-game set by the Athletics last week. As they roll into Boston, their lineup should get a huge boost with Carlos Correa and Jesus Sanchez added via trade and Jeremy Pena (ribs) activated from the injured list.
Let’s preview this Friday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Astros prediction, preview
The visiting team defintely has an apparent huge advantage on the mound since they’ll give the ball to Hunter Brown while the Red Sox have to give the ball to Cooper Criswell.
Brown is 9-5 in his 21 games this season with a 2.54 ERA and 2.97 FIP. He hasn’t won since July 2, though, and has struggled a little bit while totaling only 20 innings in his last four outings with 14 runs allowed and multiple walks in each game. Brown was much better in his last outing, giving up just one run in five innings against the Athletics. He needed 98 pitches to get through those five innings, though, and ultimately took the loss without any run support.
The Red Sox will give Criswell his first start of the season in place of Richard Fitts, who was sent to the minors earlier this week. Criswell has a 5.06 ERA and 5.44 FIP in his six games out of the bullpen this season. In Triple-A, he went 2-1 in his last six starts but struggled with an ugly 5.88 ERA and 4.60 FIP over that span. He could just be in for a spot start since Dustin May will be ready to join the rotation on Sunday.
I highlighted the Astros as one of my top MLB DFS stacks of the day, and I think they’ll be able to put plenty of runs on the scoreboard against Criswell. If they get run support for Brown, he should be able to make it stand up on Friday night. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was earlier in the season, but he took a huge step in the right direction with his last outing.
The Red Sox are heavy on left-handed hitters, and Brown has held lefties to a .186 batting average this season and just a .176 batting average on the road. If he can improve his control and not allow too many free passes, he should be able to get back int eh win column.
Astros vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Houston Astros -1.5 in 1st 5 innings (+165)
The Astros should be able to jump on Criswell early, and Brown should be able to keep the Sox in check. Rather than get the bullpens and late-game heroics involved, let’s keep it to just the first five innings and go with the Astros to be up by multiple runs by the end of the fifth. I love the plus-money odds here but the Astros at -160 on the moneyline of the 1st 5 is also a strong (and safer) play.
Strong Lean: Jose Altuve 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+145)
Altuve went 4-for-4 with three runs and three RBI on Wednesday for a total of 10 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBI). In his 24 games in July, he averaged 3.1 HRR per game, and he should be ready to welcome back his former teammate Carlos Correa and his injured teammate Jeremy Pena with a big game on Friday night.
