The Arizona Diamondbacks look fundamentally different now than they did prior to yesterday’s trade deadline. First baseman Josh Naylor is gone, now with the Seattle Mariners. Eugenio Suárez, who has 36 homers and an NL-leading 87 RBI’s, is in Seattle too, and Merrill Kelly is a Texas Ranger. The same can be said of their opponents this weekend, the Athletics, who traded starting pitcher JP Sears and closer Mason Miller to the San Diego Padres.
For tonight’s 10:05 p.m. ET series opener, the Athletics will start Jacob Lopez, while Arizona will have Anthony DeSclafani crest the hill in what will likely be a bullpen game.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Athletics prediction, preview
With the Diamondbacks dropping eight of 10 to fall seven games under .500, 12 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the NL West, selling was an obvious decision, although they couldn’t manage to get one of the Mariners’ top prospects in return for Suárez, whose contract is up after the season. But without Suárez and Naylor, their high-powered offense has become a little less dangerous. In the six games since dealing Naylor, they’ve posted a ghastly .472 OPS, scored just six runs, and lost five straight contests. At least the Athletics have had the fourth-highest OPS since the All-Star break and the ninth-lowest ERA, amassing a 7-6 record, and they didn’t massively change their offense at the deadline.
After dealing Sears, Lopez is now tied for second among the team’s rotational starters in WAR with Luis Severino, behind only Jeffrey Springs — which, given that he’s been worth just 0.5 WAR this season, isn’t saying much. The southpaw has had a roller-coaster season, giving up zero earned runs in his first 4.1 innings out of the bullpen, pitching to a 9.19 ERA in his first four starts, posting a 0.39 mark over his next four games, and stabilizing to a 5.73 ERA over his last five starts. Advanced numbers are pretty kind to the 27-year-old, as he ranks in the top quintile in five of the 13 Statcast categories, and though Arizona is in good position to take advantage of his biggest weakness — avoiding ground balls — that task has become somewhat harder without Suárez and Naylor.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks’ decision to opt for a bullpen game after an off day is a strange one. Though DeSclafani used to be a starter with the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants, he hasn’t thrown more than 60 pitches in a game for more than two seasons after missing the entire 2024 campaign due to flexor tendon surgery. The middle reliever conceded four runs in four innings in his sole start this season, against the Kansas City Royals on July 6. Advanced stats are very friendly to the 35-year-old, as he’s posted elite chase, whiff, and walk rates while limiting hard contact, but it’s doubtful he’ll be able to pitch more than four innings. Arizona’s bullpen has been the league’s fifth-worst this season, and the team did nothing to address the weakness at the deadline.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Athletics pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 10 (-105)
10 is a pretty high line, but Lopez is clearly out of form and the Diamondbacks’ bullpen game is bound to be disastrous. Plus, offense has always abounded at Sutter Health Park. I’m going for a high-scoring Athletics victory.
Strong Lean: Jacob Lopez 3+ Walks Allowed (+180)
Lopez ranks in the 25th percentile in walk rate, and he’s issued three or more free passes in each of his starts after the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Arizona has walked at among the highest rates in the league, and getting rid of Suárez and his 27th-percentile walk rate should actually help in that regard.
