Some three weeks after the Club World Cup final at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey will once again play host to international club football this evening, as the New York Red Bulls host Liga MX side Guadalajara Chivas in their first match of Leagues Cup action.
Over the next few weeks, 18 MLS clubs and 18 Liga MX clubs will face off against each other for three group stage games, followed by a knockout bracket. If the teams are tied after 90 minutes, there will be a penalty shootout for an additional point, and the top four clubs from the combined tables in each league will advance to an eight-team knockout bracket, culminating with a final on August 31 in Los Angeles.
This game projects to be fairly competitive, with Guadalajara a +145 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Red Bulls are +165 on the Moneyline, with a draw at +230.
Guadalajara Chivas vs. New York Red Bulls prediction, pick
2024 was a special season for New York, which finished just seventh in the Eastern Conference before making a dramatic run through the MLS Cup playoffs to advance to the final against the LA Galaxy, which it went on to lose 2-1 despite controlling 58% of the possession. The Red Bulls have been less impressive so far this season, sitting 10th in the East on 33 points after 25 matches, out of the playoff picture entirely if the season ended today. Meanwhile, it’s hard to read too much into Guadalajara’s 2025-26 season, given that it’s only played two games, losing to León and beating Atlético San Luis, but Chivas finished just 10th in Liga MX last season, missing the Clasura playoffs entirely.
New York’s roster is filled with flashy names, including former Bayern Münich and PSG man Eric Maxim Choupo-Mouting. Despite being 36 years old, the Cameroon international is one of the best passers in the league, ranking in the top tertile in five of seven distribution-based categories, and he’s also tied for sixth in the MLS in goals. Choupo-Mouting forms one of the strongest attacking partnerships in the United States with Emil Forsberg, who played 10 seasons for the Bundesliga’s RB Leipzig, amassing 97 goal contributions. So far this season, Forsberg has 15 combined goals and assists and Choupo-Mouting has 14; no other player has more than five. Despite its talented duo up front, New York ranks near the middle of the Eastern Conference in both attack and defense.
Guadalajara’s roster is worth 66 million Euros to Red Bulls’ 37 million, so the Mexican side has a huge advantage on paper. Chivas’ roster is headlined by 26-year-old Roberto Alvarado, who had 16 goal contributions last season in the comparatively low-scoring Liga MX. Alvarado, who started every match for Mexico’s victorious Gold Cup roster, is worth 6.5 million Euros at Transfermarkt, 2.5 million more than New York’s most valuable player, and four other Guadalajara players have a higher transfer value than Lewis Morgan. After scoring the seventh-fewest goals in Liga MX last season, Chivas then brought in Efraín Álvarez from Club Tijuana, who’s already assisted in 60 minutes of play so far this season, and one of Mexico’s most promising defenders, Bryan González, bolstered an already elite defense.
But because MLS squads tend to attract older talent and Liga MX is rife with youngsters, market value is a flawed analysis of quality. Though the Mexican league has historically been considered the stronger competition, the MLS has closed that gap, outperforming its southerly neighbors in the last two iterations of the Leagues Cup, and Opta Analyst gives both leagues the exact same average power ranking, considering them the 12th- and 13th-best leagues in the world. The Red Bulls have been utterly dominant at home with an 8-2-2 record, and despite Chivas’ shrewd offseason transfers, New York’s home-field advantage will be enough for a low-scoring win.
