Eight years after helping lead the Houston Astros to a World Series title, Carlos Correa is an Astro once again. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Minnesota Twins agreed to deal Correa back to Houston, a destination that reporters have indicated he’d been willing to waive his no-trade clause for. Per Jon Morosi, Correa will play third base with his new club.
Let’s break down the deal for each side and hand out grades for both clubs.
Houston Astros Grade: B+
Recently, the Astros received a huge blow after it was determined that All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes’ torn right hamstring will keep him out for the remainder of the season, with the goal to have him healthy by Opening Day next season. The 26-year-old was slashing .259/.359/.470 with 19 homers and 50 RBI’s in 94 games before he went down, so Houston desperately needed to replace his offensive production. Since Paredes’ injury, the Astros have posted just a .700 OPS, a number that would rank just 22nd across the full season, though they’ll get some production back when All-Star shortstop Jeremy Peña, whose .322 batting average ranks second in the American League, returns from his rib injury tomorrow.
Correa hasn’t proven this season that he can provide that level of offensive production. The 30-year-old has slashed .267/.319/.386 with just seven homers and 31 RBI’s in 93 games for the rebuilding Twins, and some of the issues that dogged him late in his tenure in Houston — such as a high chase rate and difficulty finding the launch-angle sweet-spot — have continued to be problematic. He’s also been a significantly negative defender this season, posting his worst defensive metrics in nearly a decade.
However, he was an All-Star as recently as last season, when he posted a .905 OPS, and he’d regained some of his form in July, posting a .300/.388/.371 slash line. Perhaps being reunited with his friend Jose Altuve and returning to a relatively hitter-friendly venue in Daikin Park will help him. The Astros’ remaining schedule features plenty of teams with bad pitching staffs, including seven games against the Baltimore Orioles and seven against the Los Angeles Angels, who rank 26th and 27th, respectively, in ERA.
Houston gets a solid grade here despite Correa’s question marks because, in a wide-open American League with no clear favorite and merely a five-game edge over the ultra-aggressive Seattle Mariners in the AL West, it could not afford to stand pat and let Mauricio Dubón man the hot corner for the rest of the season. The Astros have +1000 odds to win the World Series at DraftKings Sportsbook, the sixth-shortest in the league, and they didn’t give up anything of value to get the deal done.
Minnesota Twins Grade: D+
The ice-cold Twins are undergoing a fire sale, having dealt Harrison Bader, Jhoan Duran, Danny Coulombe, and Brock Stewart in the last 24 hours, so it made sense that Correa was next on the chopping block, and it’s possible that All-Star pitcher Joe Ryan will be gone too, depending on the package. After winning the AL Central in 2023, Minnesota finished fourth last season and trails the Detroit Tigers by 12 games atop the division this season, so selling now was prescient.
I just don’t like the return. According to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Houston gave up just one prospect in order to acquire Correa’s services, and the Twins agreed to eat some of the money remaining on his six-year, $200 million deal that runs through 2028. For a team stuck in neutral, having to pay to get rid of an overpriced contract without much to gain from it is a huge loss. Although Correa’s no-trade clause gave him — and, by extension, the Astros — some leverage, Minnesota should’ve extracted more from a team in desperate need of some hitting at the hot corner in a trade market shallowed by the deal that sent Eugenio Suárez to Seattle.
For now, Correa’s departure leaves the Twins in line to start Brooks Lee at shortstop. Lee, who the team selected with its eighth overall pick three summers ago, has been a below-replacement-level player in the first two seasons of his MLB career, and though his OPS+ is up to 83 this season from the 63 he posted as a rookie, his defensive metrics are poor at every infield position and he provides neither the power nor contact ability that Correa has historically provided. That’s not to say that the 24-year-old is completely hopeless — he posted a .974 OPS last season with Triple-A St. Paul — but Minnesota has to believe in him a lot in order to dump Correa for a relatively meager return.
