As much as the Lions were riddled with injuries by the time the 2024 NFL Playoffs rolled around, Detroit deserved a better ending. But now, Aidan Hutchinson is back — and apparently looking even better. Although losing Ben Johnson could prove critical, it appears that defenses may now have to plan for Sonic and Knuckles sets, with new Offensive Coordinator John Morton indicating he’ll have Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on the field more together this season.
So, how does that impact betting on the Lions? Let’s take a look at some of the betting stats surrounding their 2025 futures. (Spoiler alert: Lions fans probably won’t like these numbers.)
Jahmyr Gibbs Futures Splits
In the Offensive Player of the Year market, Gibbs is the most-bet running back in terms of percentage of bets at 14%. However, those bets have only garnered seven percent of the handle from this market. That’s still second-most among running backs (trailing only Saquon Barkley), but that disparity in handle vs. number of bets indicates a public lean. That’s furthered by the fact that Gibbs’ odds have ballooned from +900 at open to +1200.
The public lean toward pro-Gibbs plays continues when looking to his season-long props:
- The over on 1075.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards has seen 82% of the handle on 98% of the bets.
- The over on 10.5 Regular Season Rushing TDs has seen 86% of the handle on 93% of the bets.
If you’re looking to fade Gibbs following his 250-carry sophomore campaign, the under on both of these season-long props have sharp leans.
Aidan Hutchinson Futures Splits
Hutchinson is the popular option in both the Defensive Player of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year markets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Looking to DPOY first, Hutchinson’s +650 odds make him the favorite. That number has decreased since he opened at +850, and the betting splits may be a big reason why. He’s seen 21% of the DPOY handle on 17% of the bets — the highest percentages for both categories. Most importantly, sharp money has gone his way.
As for Comeback Player of the Year, both he and Dak Prescott carry the shortest odds at +275. But, this is an increase from Hutchinson’s opening +200 odds. This movement comes on the back of him seeing 22% of the handle in the Comeback Player of the Year market on 21% of the bets.
DPOY may provide a more competitive field for Hutchinson, but the odds movement, size of odds and the sharper lean makes that the more compelling awards market to back Hutchinson in.
Lions Super Bowl Odds
The Lions are the most popular team in terms of handle in the “To Make the Playoffs” market. Yet, they’ve only seen their odds shift from -225 to -230 so far.
Detroit has also seen the most handle in the Super Bowl champion market, taking 15% of the handle on 11% of the bets — the latter percentage being the fourth-highest mark. Similarly, the Lions have seen the second-greatest percentage of handle and bets in the NFC Champion discussion, but the 16% handle on 20% of the bets is less favorable than the Super Bowl champion splits.
As for the NFC North Division Winner conversation, the Lions have seen 16% of the handle on 20% of the bets. So, the only play among these that has a sharp lean is the one with the longest odds.
Looking at their win total of 10.5 — which is the same as the total they had before the 2024 regular season — sharps like the under. To this point, 38% of the handle on just 16% of the bets has been placed on the Lions finishing with under 10.5 wins this season. To further illustrate how public the over on this play is: The over on this total is the second-most popular betting option (by numbers of bets) in the team win totals market.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
Jared Goff carries +2000 odds in the “Stats Leaders” category of “QB INTS,” which are double the odds of the five QBs atop this market. Yet, no player has had more handle thrown their way than Goff in this market.
Regression expectations continue as we look to his season-long props:
- The over on 3900.5 Regular Season Passing Yards has seen 68% of the handle on 85% of the bets.
- The over on 28.5 Regular Season Passing TDs has seen 55% of the handle on 61% of the bets.
If you’re looking to fade Goff, the QB INTS market could be fun to dabble in, but the under on his Regular Season Passing Yards has strong splits (32% of the handle on 15% of the bets).
Sharps also seem to like the unders on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s season-long player props:
- The under on 1100.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards has seen 44% of the handle on 6% of the bets.
- The over on 8.5 Regular Season Receiving TDs has seen 37% of the handle on 2% of the bets.
Both sets of betting splits for these St. Brown season-long props are rather decisive.
Betting Trends from 2024 to Consider
While the data above will help you with season-long plays, the following stats produced by Gibbs, Goff and St. Brown in 2024 are instead applicable to gameday player props.
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Rushing Yards: 12-5 to the over (Tied for second-best record against Rushing Yards prop closing line among all RBs in 2024.)
- Jared Goff
- Passing Yards: 11-5 to the over (Tied for best record against Passing Yards prop closing line among all QBs in 2024.)
- St. Brown
- Receiving Yards: 11-5 to the under
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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