There’s always so much uncertainty at this time of year in the baseball world, with the league’s trade deadline now less than 36 hours away. The Astros have been linked to many different players in recent days, as you’d expect for a club currently leading the AL West and fighting for a bye in the Wild Card round. However, it might be the Nationals that are of more interest as a seller.
Washington has a couple veteran bullpen arms on expiring deals that they’ll likely ship out before the end of Thursday, but it’s today’s starter, MacKenzie Gore, who could be the biggest name on the move. The left-hander does have two years of arbitration left, but considering the void of frontline starting pitching options at this deadline, there’s a chance that a new Nationals regime takes advantage and brings back a haul for the young ace.
Could this be Gore’s final start with Washington? Will he go out with a bang? Let’s preview this matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Astros prediction, preview
If you’re wondering why someone like MacKenzie Gore would be a highly coveted piece at this year’s deadline, look no further than his 3.52 ERA and a 3.28 FIP across 117.2 innings. The left-hander was one of the headline assets coming back to Washington in the Juan Soto deal, and the organization has been waiting for a breakout campaign just like this. That’s not to suggest that Gore pitched poorly in 2023 or 2024, but a career-high 29.3% strikeout rate is currently the seventh-best qualified mark in baseball. Gore also pairs that figure with an 88th percentile whiff rate (31.1%). The long and short of it is that the 26-year-old has legit swing-and-miss stuff and that he’ll likely continue to get better as he refines his game. Remember, Gore is a former third-overall pick. This isn’t coming out of nowhere.
Still, specific to Wednesday afternoon, this could be a difficult matchup for the All-Star. Houston’s lineup is almost entirely made up of RHBs, so it makes sense that the team has hit left-handed pitching quite well in 2025. In fact, the Astros’ 115 wRC+ and .335 wOBA within the split are the second-best marks in MLB. That said, Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes have carried much of that offensive load and both are injured at the moment, so Gore won’t be facing Houston at anywhere close to 100% health.
The Nationals will also catch a bit of a break with Ryan Gusto on the mound for the Astros. In his most recent outing last Friday, the right-hander surrendered eight earned runs to the Athletics in just 3.1 innings of work, raising his ERA to a putrid 5.18 for the season. Things get even more bleak when you isolate Gusto’s appearances to only starts, as the 26-year-old has pitched to a 5.85 ERA and has conceded 1.50 opponent home runs per nine. The final nail in the coffin? Gusto has extreme handedness splits. He’s allowed opposing LHBs to combine for a massive .412 wOBA so far in 2025. Few teams are as left-handed as Washington. Gusto should have his issues navigating the top of a lineup that features CJ Abrams, Nathaniel Lowe, Luis Garcia Jr. and James Wood.
Nationals vs. Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: James Wood 2+ Total Bases (+145)
Wood is slumping in July, but this is a wild amount of value for a player that ranks 19th in ISO (.235) and has 45 extra-base hits in 2025.
