Playing on MLB trade deadline day is always stressful. The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, two potential players at this deadline, will square off only hours before the clock strikes 6 p.m. ET.
Tampa is fading quickly from the Wild Card race. Reports suggest they’re open to selling some of their regular players, and ownership is reportedly unhappy with their slump. The sale got underway on Wednesday night, as they traded starter Zack Littell to the Reds.
The Yankees are slumping as well, but will continue to buy. They’ve already made three trades to upgrade their lineup, and will make more moves to upgrade the pitching staff before the day is done.
The Yankees are -118 favorites on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Let’s dig into a Rays-Yankees prediction and pick.
Rays vs. Yankees prediction, pick
On paper, the pitching matchup favors the Rays. Ryan Pepiot has been yet another Tampa pitching success story. Picked up off the Dodgers’ scrap heap, the 27-year-old has a 3.42 ERA in 22 starts this year, down from 3.60 in 26 starts last year. But the numbers on the surface may be doing him some favors.
Pepiot only has a 26th percentile run value because of some rough underlying numbers. He’s getting barreled often and giving up plenty of hard contact. Tampa has great defense to cover for him, but it can’t go on forever. And giving up hard contact in Yankee Stadium tends to end poorly.
There’s no number, surface or otherwise, that paints Marcus Stroman in a good light. Here are some numbers of his that are in the 5th percentile or lower: expected ERA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, fastball velocity, and hard-hit rate. 49% of balls in play from Stroman are considered hard-hit. It may be his last turn in the rotation, as the Yankees look to upgrade at the deadline. But for now, the Rays hitters get to salivate in the batter’s box waiting to get at Stroman.
It doesn’t help that New York’s bullpen was taxed by an extra-innings affair on Wednesday night. If Stroman is hung out to dry, the cupboard is light behind him. I’m all in on the over of 8.5 runs in this one.
