The Padres and Mets are facing off in San Diego on Wednesday. Below, I break down my prediction and pick for the game.
Clay Holmes will be starting for the Mets, and Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Padres.
Padres vs. Mets prediction, preview
Clay Holmes is taking the mound for the Mets on Wednesday. Holmes is having a solid season for the Mets in his first year as a regular starter. He has started 21 games for New York and has an ERA of 3.40. He has done a good job of limiting runs allowed this season, but his strikeout numbers have taken a dramatic drop from when he was a reliever. Holmes has struck out at least 9.2 batters per nine innings in every season of his career where he made at least 12 appearances. This season, he is striking out just 7.0 batters per nine innings. That is where the transition from reliever to starter has affected Holmes the most. Holmes also struggles to go deep into games, not making it to six innings in any of his last eight starts.
Yu Darvish is making his fifth start of the season for the Padres. He missed the first half of the season with an elbow injury and has struggled with his control since making his debut. He has a 9.18 ERA and is striking out just 5.9 batters per nine innings. Darvish is also walking 4.9 batters per nine innings. In his most recent start, Darvish gave up eight runs in 3.1 innings against the Cardinals. He is averaging just 4.05 innings per start and could struggle against the Mets’ lineup. Luckily for Darvish, the Padres have the best bullpen ERA in baseball. As long as Darvish can not get hammered too hard, his bullpen should be able to keep the Mets in check.
Padres vs. Mets pick, best bet
The Padres have taken the first two games of this series against the Mets. San Diego is just four games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, and they’re in a prime position for an NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Mets are clinging to a 0.5-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. The Mets will need to battle through this game without Juan Soto. Soto has been the Mets’ best hitter over the past several months, but left Tuesday night’s game early after fouling a ball off his foot. Other Mets will have to step up in his stead and try to take advantage of Yu Darvish’s shaky stuff.
My best bet for this game is a same-game parlay of over 8.5 runs and Mark Vientos to register a hit. Both teams should be able to get up a few runs against these two starters. The Padres have scored seven runs in each of the first two games of this series, and their bats should stay hot. Meanwhile, the Mets should be able to generate a few runs against Darvish. That should push the game over the total. Meanwhile, Mark Vientos is on fire for the Mets. After a very slow start to the season, Mark Vientos is on an eight-game hitting streak. Over the past week, he is batting .429 with a 1.214 OPS. He should register another hit in this game and extend his hitting streak to nine games.
