All eyes of the WNBA world will be looking toward Minnesota as the Lynx host the New York Liberty for the first time this season. The last time these two teams faced was in the Game 5 win-or-go-home matchup in last year’s WNBA Finals.
The Liberty got the better of the Lynx last season, but Napheesa Collier and company have returned with a vengeance. Collier has climbed to the WNBA MVP favorite while the Lynx have remained at the top of the standings from start to finish this year. New York is just one spot behind them, and these two teams are the top two title favorites at +170 and +180 on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the playoffs beginning to inch closer.
Looking at tonight’s odds, the Lynx enter as seven point favorites and -310 on the moneyline. The Liberty hold +250 odds of getting the outright victory on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 166.5.
Here are my favorite Napheesa Collier prop bets as she seeks revenge on the Liberty from last year’s WNBA Finals loss.
Best Napheesa Collier Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 Points (-120)
Napheesa Collier is averaging 23.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game this season. She has tallied over 21.5 points in 16 of the 24 games played this season, including eight of the 14 games played at home. This game is sure to carry a bit more weight with last year’s postseason exit in mind. Collier has leveled up her game following this frustrating postseason loss and is scoring at a career-high rate while shooting a career-best 53.1% from the field.
Minnesota will be looking to bounce back from a loss to the Atlanta Dream in the previous game, which marked their first home loss of the entire season. Collier tallied 32 points despite the losing effort. She has also recorded over 21.5 points in four of the past six games. While the Liberty sit in second place in the overall standings, they rank eighth in the league in opponents’ points per game and eighth in points in the paint allowed.
In addition, Breanna Stewart will miss tonight’s game as she continues to recover from her lower leg injury. This likely would have been Collier’s primary matchup, and expect points to be a bit easier on the interior without Stewart. With plenty of motivation on her side due to last year’s playoff exit, Stewart absent from the matchup, and Collier already playing at a high level, this has all the makings of a strong offensive output. Count on the five-time All-Star to play in attack mode tonight and record over 21.5 points for the 17th time this season.
Napheesa Collier Over 8.5 Rebounds (+105)
Stewart’s absence will also be felt by the Liberty on the glass. The two-time MVP is averaging a career-low 6.5 rebounds per game this season, but averaged 8.5 per game in her career and has tallied as many as 9.6 over a season. As a team, New York ranks sixth in the WNBA in rebounds per game and 10th in rebounding percentage. They also rank 12th in opponents’ rebounds allowed on the season.
Collier is pulling in 7.7 rebounds per contest this season, which is below the career-high 9.7 she pulled in last year. She has only tallied over 8.5 rebounds in eight of the 24 games, but this will be one of the friendlier matchups from a rebounding perspective. The three-time All-NBA team member has tallied eight or more in five of her past seven games.
Jonquel Jones leads the Liberty in rebounds at 9.3 per contest and will be Collier’s biggest threat to pull in boards. But Alana Smith will likely be primarily tasked with matching up with Jones, with Jessica Sheppard set to spend some time on her as well. Count on Collier being opportunistic in collecting misses and adding to her rebounding tally. There is sure to be plenty of intensity in the arena with the past results between these two sides in mind. Originally, I was targeting a double-double, which holds +115 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for Collier. But the Lynx star has only tallied five double-doubles on the season, and getting +105 odds for her to pull in at least nine rebounds feels the better way to play it. Count on Collier playing with a clear edge across this matchup and collecting at least nine rebounds in the process.
