Last day before the trade deadline, and pieces are already moving. Adrian Houser’s start got cancelled. Jhoan Duran trolled us all (me, mostly) by hugging his mates in the Twins’ bullpen last night. The Angels and the Braves have made moves. But everyone’s still waiting for the big pieces to fall before the sun doth set on Thursday. I’ve got the Angels vs. Rangers and Athletics vs. Mariners games written up for tonight. Having said that, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets today surrounding my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Julio Rodriguez 3+ total bases (+135)
We’re climbing the ladder a bit here. Since June 30, Julio is pacing the majors with a 21.7% barrel rate and .419 ISO. He’s slashing .323/.384/.677 on the road against southpaws, a .677 slugging mark jaw‑dropping by any standard. Springs’ 51.7% fly‑ball rate and .448 SLG allowed to righties at Sutter Health Park invites elevated contact. Julio’s 12.9% barrel rate over 30 days confirms elite exit velocity—even in an average park, he’s smacking rockets. In his last ten games, Rodríguez has three multi‑hit efforts and two multi‑extra‑base nights. He’s already gone deep off Springs twice this season, and Springs’ secondary pitches—especially his slider used 27.2% of the time—leak barrels when juiced up at the hitter‑friendly park. The matchup sets up: elite slugger vs. exploitable sinker‑slider mix. Take Julio for at least three bases—expect a double or homer before the night ends.
Athletics vs. Mariners F5 u4.5 total runs (+120)
Both starters excel early. Bryan Woo boasts a 2.91 season ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings. Jeffrey Springs carries a 4.74 xFIP at Sutter Health Park and a 1.20 WHIP. He’s surrendered at least one homer in each home start this season. Both bullpens combine for a 3.58 July SIERA. The A’s have produced just one first‑five‑inning run in four of their last six games. The Mariners have yielded zero first‑five‑inning runs in five of Woo’s last eight starts. Neither lineup produces early‑frame fireworks. Oakland’s first-inning under 0.5 runs market has cashed in seven of their last eight home games. Seattle’s first-inning under 0.5 runs market is 10‑for‑11 in games as favorites. Evening temperatures and a light breeze will suppress any ballpark carry. This contest hinges on starting‑pitcher dominance and early bullpen efficiency. I expect a slow ramp‑up until the late innings. First five innings under 4.5 is the sharp play.
Jose Soriano 3+ walks vs. Mariners (+110)
Soriano issues a 4.1 BB/9 rate this season. He’s walked three or more in six of his last ten starts. His 1.40 WHIP ranks 29th among qualified starters. The Rangers rank seventh in MLB with a 9.2 percent walk rate versus righties. They’re patient at the plate and will force Soriano to navigate traffic. Texas leads the league in plate‑appearance length with 3.87 pitches per PA. That approach amplifies his control issues. Soriano’s fastball sits at 93 mph but lacks consistent command. He’s prone to free passes when he misses his target early.
The Mariners are working at bats better since the Break. They’re rounding into midseason form. This prop exploits Soriano’s highest exposure, not his ERA. I expect the Rangers to load bases and draw walks early. Soriano’s under‑pressure frame spells at least three walks tonight. This is a locked‑in edge play on control volatility.
