All 30 teams in Major League Baseball are playing on Wednesday, with nine games spread throughout the afternoon and six games under the lights. For today’s home run props, we’ll focus on the late games, although there are definitely some juicy player props to consider throughout the day. This Wednesday night, I’m targeting home run props from Jose Ramirez, Cody Bellinger, and Julio Rodriguez.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props–all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, there’s never certainty.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their extreme volatility. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also like to play home run props at a small unit size in round robins, which boosts their ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Wednesday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jose Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+300)
Ramirez and the Guardians are taking on lefty Kyle Freeland on Wednesday night, which should set up well for Ramirez. I highlighted him as one of my top MLB DFS picks as well, and he should be in a good spot to produce in all formats since he has been so good against southpaws and at home.
Ramirez has seven homers in his last 19 games and 21 homers on the season to go with his impressive .296 batting average and 31 stolen bases. He has hit 11 of his 21 homers at home, where he has a .372 wOBA. Most of his power production has come as a lefty against right-handed pitchers, but he still has a solid .391 wOBA against lefties as well.
Since the All-Star break, he has three homers, including this blast against the Orioles:
Freeland has given up 14 homers in 19 starts this season, and 13 of those were to right-handed hitters, who have a .315 batting average and .366 wOBA against him. While some of his numbers are inflated by Coors Field, he has given up more homers on the road (9) than at home (5). Righties have hit all nine of those road home runs as well.
On the strong side of his splits and in a favorable matchup, getting Ramirez at +300 for his home run props seems like a solid value to consider.
Cody Bellinger to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Bellinger hit his 20th homer on Tuesday against the Rays to help the Yankees get a 7-5 win to even up their three-game set in the Bronx.
Bellinger will have a great matchup to go yard again on Wednesday against Zack Littell of the Rays, who has allowed an MLB-leading 26 homers on the season. His ERA is only 3.72, but he has given up a 41.8% hard-hit rate and 11.2% barrel rate. Of his 26 homers allowed, 18 (69%) have come on the road and 12 (46%) have been hit by left-handed hitters in just 43% of the plate appearances against him.
Bellinger has hit 14 of his 20 homers this season at Yankee Stadium, and 14 of them have also come against righties. This season he has been fairly even in both home/road and right/left splits.
With the splits leaning his direction, Bellinger has a good chance to hit another bomb on Wednesday night.
Julio Rodriguez to record 1+ home runs (+370)
Throughout his career, Rodriguez has been a notoriously slow starter who catches fire after the All-Star break, and he’s following the same script again this year.
Rodriguez has seven homers in his last 15 games along with three doubles, 11 RBI, and a 57.1% hard-hit rate. He also has a 19.0% barrel rate over that span. Those contact numbers are even more impressive, since through his first 92 games of the season he had a 44.7% hard-hit rate and a 7.2% barrel rate.
Rodriguez and the Mariners are in homer-friendly Sutter Health Park, which has been the most homer-friendly park in the majors this year. He’ll be facing Jeffrey Springs, who has given up 20 homers this season, including 17 to righties like Rodriguez and 11 in his 52 2/3 innings at Sutter Health Park.
Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with a homer in the past against Springs, which came on May 6 of this year in Sacramento:
Rodriguez is heating up enough coming into this rematch that getting him at +370 is a great way to close out Wednesday’s home run props.
