Wednesday’s WNBA slate brings three games for fans to enjoy but none are more highly-anticipated than the rematch of the 2024 WNBA Finals slated for 8 p.m. EST. In this matchup, the New York Liberty travel to the great north for a showdown against the Minnesota Lynx. After the outcome of last year’s Finals, there’s undoubtedly some hard feelings between these two teams which should make for a must-watch affair.
Here’s a Lynx vs. Liberty prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for the 8 p.m. EST outing on Wednesday.
Lynx vs. Liberty preview, prediction
Minnesota Lynx
As the only team to have reached the 20-win mark this season, the Lynx are easily a top-two team in the WNBA, which is why they’re tied with the Liberty for the best odds to win the 2025 WNBA title. Minnesota sits 22-5 this year and bring unquestionable dominance to the table with a league-best 13.4 net rating while holding both the top offensive and defensive ratings. They average the second-most points per game while holding opponents to the WNBA’s lowest scoring average, so these Lynx are flat-out fantastic on both sides of the ball.
Napheesa Collier leads the charge with MVP-caliber production of 23.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. The forward paces the roster in scoring and rebounding as well as steals thanks to 1.8 per contest. A guard tandem of Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride round out the backcourt with over 14 points per game each, while the former leads the Lynx with 6.1 assists a night, too.
The passing is certainly a strong point for Minnesota — the team produces a WNBA-best 23.6 assists per outing, nearly two more than the next-closest squad. Their free-flowing offense excels at moving the ball with a 74.5% AST%, but their AST/TOV ratio also ranks best in the league at 1.81 since they cough up the second-fewest turnovers of any team.
New York Liberty
As great as the Lynx are, the reigning champs aren’t really that far behind, at least when fully healthy. The Liberty’s 17-8 record puts them second in the league standings, and it’s pretty easy to see how they got there. New York scores a WNBA-high 87.7 points a night while ranking fourth in FG%, second in 3P% and second in assists. It’s clear the Liberty maintain an offense-first focus, especially since the defense falls eighth in opponent scoring, but they can play disruptive ball at times with the most steals of any team and second-most blocks.
Where stars are concerned, the Liberty are likely shorthanded for this contest since superstar Breanna Stewart remains day-to-day with a leg injury suffered on Saturday. She probably won’t suit up for this one, but the Liberty did recently return former MVP Jonquel Jones to the lineup. She’s averaging 13.8 points and a team-high 9.3 boards per game, nearly a double-double. Of course, star guard Sabrina Ionescu is still holding it down with a team-best 19.3 points along with 5.8 assists and 1.5 steals a night. Without Stewart in the lineup, the Liberty also depend more on Natasha Cloud, who paces the squad with 6.0 assists and another 10.1 points.
Lynx vs. Liberty pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lynx as 7.5-point favorites at home in this one with -325 odds to win on the Moneyline. It’s particularly surprising to see the Liberty at +260 odds on the Moneyline. As for the game total, that’s set at 165.5 combined points.
It’s a real bummer Stewart isn’t healthy for this one, especially since Wednesday’s matchup marks the first time these squads square off since those 2024 WNBA Finals which New York won in five games. This likely becomes a very close contest between the league’s two title favorites, so fans are in for a treat.
Realistically, these odds probably lean a little bit too far in Minnesota’s favor. I get where oddsmakers are coming from since the Liberty enter on a three-game losing streak against an opponent with the likely MVP and the WNBA’s best net rating, but it’s tough to see this New York offense slow down significantly. Despite facing a great Lynx defense, the Liberty should still hang in there and cover the spread at 7.5, which is my top pick for this outing.
However, I feel bold enough to take them to win outright at a pretty nice plus-money listing. There’s some risk for sure, but if any team can upset the league’s best unit, these Liberty can make it happen now that Jones is back to bolster the defense.
Top Pick: NY Liberty +7.5 (-118)
