The 2024-25 Washington Commanders finished with 525 pass attempts, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. As with its division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, Washington also had a dual-threat quarterback in Jayden Daniels, who rushed 148 times for 891 yards and six touchdowns. Jalen Hurts led all quarterbacks with 150 rush attempts and finished with 632 yards and a whopping 14 touchdowns.
Unlike the Eagles, though, Washington could not lay claim to a great offensive line or defense. PFF rated the Commanders as the 19th-best offensive line while the defense finished 18th in scoring defense at 23 points per game.
Commanders Overview
After finishing 4-13 in 2023, Washington hit rock bottom, allowing the team to pick second in the draft. After selecting Jayden Daniels, there was obvious optimism, but still tons of unknowns. The bust rate among highly drafted quarterbacks is high.
Well, Daniels exceeded all expectations, guiding Washington to a 12-5 regular-season record and NFC Conference Championship appearance, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles.
With the quarterback situation settled, at least it appears to be for now, the NFL cheat code has been activated, since Daniels is on his rookie contract, allowing the Commanders to utilize resources to surround him with talent.
And utilize resources they did, shoring up the offensive line with Laremy Tunsil and providing another offensive weapon in Deebo Samuel. The defense was also bolstered with defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw and cornerback Jonathan Jones, but I’m not sure it’s enough to vault the unit into the elite echelon. The first-round pick in the draft was utilized on an offensive tackle.
There is one cloud, though. It hasn’t unloaded perspiration onto the landscape, but it’s dark and ominous. Wide receiver, Terry McLaurin, wants a contract extension. There seems to be a wide divide in the negotiations, but there have been no indications that Washington would trade McLaurin. It’s just a matter of when, not if. That said, it’s still a fluid situation and nothing is guaranteed, so it’s an uncertainty that must account for the whole range of outcomes.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Washington this season.
Wide Receivers
The aforementioned McLaurin led the team with 117 targets and a 23.3% target share. He turned those into 82 receptions for 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Olamide Zaccheaus was second among wide receivers with 64 targets, good for a 12.7% target share. Zaccheaus is no longer on the team and took his talents to Chicago.
Noah Brown finished with 56 targets last season and a 17.5% target share. He only played in 11 games while starting nine. Brown should start opposite McLaurin but could see a slight decrease in target share because of….
Deebo Samuel.
Samuel has been oft-injured recently, but he did start 15, 15, 12 and 15 games over the last four seasons, averaging 96.3 targets and 61 receptions. At the height of his powers, Samuel garnered a 27.8% target share in 2021. It was 28.2% the following season before ticking down to 24.5% and 20.8% last season. It’s likely that number will be north of 20% this season.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz received 91 targets and an 18.1% target share. In the prior four seasons, Ertz was in the 18% to 19% range for target share in all of those campaigns. John Bates had 13 targets while Ben Sinnott had five. Uh, yeah.
I’m thinking Ertz may lose some target share to Samuel because Samuel will likely receive plenty of manufactured touches behind the line of scrimmage as well as crossers over the middle of the field. The decrease likely won’t be large, but it could be a decrease nonetheless.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler led the group with 41 targets and a 12% target share. Brian Robinson Jr. was second with 25 targets and a 6% target share. Both players are back and should soak up most of the opportunities at the position, barring injury.
Per PFF, Jayden Daniels had a checkdown rate of 9.3%, the ninth-lowest in the NFL last season. As with most dual-threat quarterbacks, Daniels often prefers to run with his own legs than pass it to a running back.
