With the MLB’s trade deadline approaching tomorrow, the Cleveland Guardians — who sit second in the mediocre AL Central at 53-54 — are expected to be one of the more active teams, perhaps dealing either Steven Kwan or Shane Bieber. But first, Cleveland’s focus will lie squarely on tonight’s rubber match against the NL West cellar-dwelling Colorado Rockies.
In tonight’s 6:40 p.m. ET decider, the Rockies will start Kyle Freeland, with the Guardians opting for a bullpen game opened by Kolby Allard.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians prediction, preview
Since replacing manager Bud Black with Warren Schaeffer on May 11, the Rockies have been closer to run-of-the-mill bad than historically impotentt. That improvement, in particular, has been driven by Colorado’s offense, which has actually ranked a solid seventh in OPS since the All-Star break despite being shut out by the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday. However, the Rockies’ pitching has still had issues, giving up 10 runs yesterday to a red-hot Cleveland offense that has been even better than Colorado’s in the second half so far. José Ramírez, who should be untouchable at the deadline, has had a 1.069 OPS over his last 22 games, and he should continue to thrive against a Rockies bullpen that has been awful and just traded Tyler Kinley to the Atlanta Braves.
Kinley, who’s spend the last six seasons in Colorado, was one of the team’s longer-tenured players. Tonight, the club’s elder statesman, Freeland, will start, hoping to turn around a season in which he has gone just 2-10 with a 5.24 ERA. The southpaw has had an okay July, posting a 4.18 ERA this month, and his ERA has been 1.3 runs higher at hitter-friendly Coors Field than on the road. He has induced chases at a 69th-percentile rate and avoided walks, and though opponents have recorded hard hits at a high rate, the Guardians have posted the third-slowest average exit velocity and lowest hard-hit rate this season.
Allard has made one start this season, in a May 28 game against the Los Angeles Dodgers in which he offered four innings of four-hit, two-run ball and ended up with a no-decision in a game that Cleveland ended up winning. He’s also made several long relief appearances, including a six-inning outing in his season debut on April 26. The southpaw ranks in just the sixth percentile in chase rate, the fourth percentile in whiff rate, and the second percentile in strikeout rate, but he’s a master at inducing soft contact, and he doesn’t walk many batters. He should be able to limit damage for three innings against a team with the second-worst road OPS before turning it over to the Guardians’ top 10 bullpen, which is still a strong unit without the currently-suspended Emmanuel Clase.
Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8 (-108)
Each of the series’ first two games featured exactly 14 runs, and these offenses are clearly hot, even after the Rockies dealt Ryan McMahon. Freeland, though better on the road, isn’t exactly a star pitcher.
Strong Lean: José Ramírez 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI’s (+100)
Ramírez has reached this number in six of his 11 games since the All-Star break, and he’s probably due for an RBI, given that he hasn’t recorded one in seven games. The Dominican has smashed lefties to the tune of a .940 OPS and has also been somewhat better at home.
