This is the last game these two teams will play before the MLB Trade Deadline, which likely means this is the last game these two teams will play as currently constructed.
The Red Sox will be buyers. It’s been another strange season in Boston, yet after all the ups and downs, the Red Sox sit comfortably above .500 and in a Wild Card spot, just five games back of the Blue Jays for the AL East crown.
The Twins will be sellers — it’s just a matter of how much they’ll be willing to part with. Minnesota could be the most important organization of the next 36 hours if it entertains the idea of moving on from the likes of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Joe Ryan. But are the Twins really going to enter a full rebuild?
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s preview this actual nine-inning matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Twins prediction, preview
In a way, Brayan Bello’s 2025 campaign mirrors his team’s. Though nothing about the overall package seems that great, Bello is somehow in possession of a 3.32 ERA entering play on Wednesday. Heck, he’s only allowed more than three earned runs in a start once this whole season. That’s despite a 31st percentile expected ERA (4.39) and a career-low strikeout rate (18.1%). I guess, at a certain point, you just have to accept that a pitcher is slightly better than his underlying statistics. In his last eight outings, Bello has registered a sterling 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP; though, once again, that might be more about a .239 opponent BABIP than anything else. It all makes Bello a bit of a mystery box as an asset. He’s too good to stack against, but he’s got too many red flags to truly trust him.
Zebby Matthews is actually the inverse of Bello. The Bizzaro Bello, if you will. Through six starts with the Twins at the MLB level in 2025, the 25-year-old is flirting with an ERA around 5.00. However, everything about Matthews’ profile screams he’s much better than his surface stats, including a stunning 2.75 FIP. It all begins and ends with Matthews’ elite strikeout ability, as the right-hander has managed 38 strikeouts in only 29.0 innings of work. If you factor in Matthews’ nine starts from 2024, he owns a career 26.9% strikeout rate and 4.1 K/BB ratio with Minnesota. He’s also just directly on the heels of his best appearance of the year, tossing six scoreless inning with seven strikeouts last Friday against the Nationals. I feel like more of that is on the horizon for Matthews.
That said, this afternoon will be a challenge for Minnesota’s young RHP. The Red Sox have a dangerous lineup, and you don’t have to look any further than the team’s .197 ISO in July — the fifth-highest mark in MLB. It’s been the combo of Jarren Duran and Roman Anthony leading the charge this month, as the duo of left-handed outfielders each have an OBP above .400 and a wRC+ above 160 within the span. That’s not a terrible way to start a batting order.
Red Sox vs. Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-108)
Boston’s been underwhelming on the road in 2025, but backing the superior team as a slight underdog always feels like pretty sound logic.
