Think of the conditions where you’d least want to play 18 innings of baseball. Got it? Well, that’s exactly how hot it’s going to be for the afternoon leg of today’s doubleheader between the Blue Jays and the Orioles. In fact, it’s supposed to feel as if it’s over 100 degrees on the field for Game 1. Yikes.
Still, if last night was any indication, the muggy weather should translate into some extra carry at Camden, which should mean some fireworks for each team. If it’s going to be ridiculously warm, at least hit some dingers for the fans in attendance, right?
Let’s preview the first-half of this matchup between AL East rivals with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction, preview
The rollercoaster ride that Charlie Morton has been on side late March continues to chug along this afternoon for Game 1. At one point, the 41-year-old was pitching so poorly that the Orioles almost designated him for assignment in mid-May. Instead, they moved the veteran to the bullpen, where he pitched well enough to re-earn his rotation spot. Morton then looked great for a stretch of time, seeing his strikeout rate skyrocket and legitimately becoming a trade deadline asset for Baltimore. Now? Let’s just say we’ve hit another bump in the track, as Morton’s surrendered four long balls and 10 earned runs across his last two outings. For 2025 as a whole, the RHP sports an ugly 5.81 ERA as a starter, though that might be more to do with .341 BABIP than anything else. Any way you slice it, there’s a very real chance that Tuesday is Morton’s last day wearing Orioles’ orange.
On paper this should be a very difficult matchup for Morton, as Toronto leads MLB in batting average (.289), wOBA (.361) and wRC+ (133) in the month of July. That said, this likely won’t be a Jays lineup that’s at full strength. All-Star catcher Alejandro Kirk remains on the seven-day concussion IL after leaving Saturday’s contest against the Tigers, while George Springer might be joining his teammate some time soon. In what was a very scary moment on Monday, Springer took a 96 mph fastball off the helmet in the ninth inning. He stayed down on the field for a few minutes before finally getting up and walking off under his own power. It would be a slight shock to see Springer back playing in Game 1, and if he is unavailable, the Jays would undoubtedly miss him. Since July 1, Springer is slashing .371/.451/.640 with a 205 wRC+ in 102 plate appearances.
By now, you’ve probably guessed that this contest carries quite the total on the DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s actually 10.5 — tied for the largest total of any tilt on Tuesday’s slate. Well, another aspect of that projection is that Toronto’s pitching plan looks like an absolute mess. Easton Lucas, who has already made four starts for the Jays in 2025, will get the spot start for Game 1 of this doubleheader. Coming into the series, it seemed like the decision was between Lucas and Lazaro Estrada, a man that has also had a cup of coffee with Toronto this season. Considering how much the Orioles have struggled with LHPs — the team owns just a .123 ISO and an 85 wRC+ within the split — Lucas makes sense as the one getting the nod from John Schneider. That said, both of these gentlemen will likely pitch at some point, after Toronto’s bullpen had to cover 5.1 innings in Monday’s lopsided loss.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-110)
Between the warm weather and each team’s uncertain pitching plan, I’m just going to assume this game is high scoring on both sides.
