Fittingly, on the week that one of the franchise’s best-ever players, Ichiro Suzuki, earned his long-awaited induction into the Hall of Fame, the Seattle Mariners’ Cal Raleigh took over from Aaron Judge as the favorite to win American League MVP at DraftKings Sportsbook. Entering the second game of the series against the Athletics, Big Dumper is -130 to claim the award for the first time.
For the 10:05 p.m. ET clash, Seattle will start Logan Evans, while the Athletics will have veteran Luis Severino — a name to watch ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline — crest the hill.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners at Athletics prediction, preview
The Mariners finally stunted some of the Athletics’ momentum last night with a 3-1 win in the series opener after the Athletics stunned the Houston Astros with a four-game sweep on the road. That series was highlighted by Nick Kurtz’ six-for-six, four-homer performance, but the pitching was elite too. That remained the case last night, with JP Sears producing a respectable effort, but trade deadline acquisition Josh Naylor produced his first Seattle home run and Raleigh had a pair of hits. The Athletics have been solid overall this month with a 3.97 ERA and an especially impressive .797 OPS, but the Mariners have been a top-10 unit on both sides of the ball and have cut Houston’s lead atop the AL West to three.
Seattle should feel fairly confident with Evans on the mound. Though the 24-year-old has had a few rough outings this season (in particular, the July 9 effort on the road against the New York Yankees, in which he got shelled for nine hits and six runs in 4.2 innings comes to mind), he’s done a great job settling down over his last two appearances and has reduced his ERA back to a very solid 3.64. Advanced numbers aren’t as kind to the rookie — he ranks in the league’s bottom sextile in nine of 13 Statcast categories, including a 5.51 expected ERA — but until recently, the Athletics hadn’t hit the ball very hard, minimizing one of his weaknesses.
Severino, meanwhile, is a completely different pitcher at Sutter Health Park. The 31-year-old leads the AL with 11 losses, 69 earned runs, and 12 hit batsmen, but most of those issues have come at home, where he’s posted a horrific 6.68 ERA in his 12 appearances and allowed five runs in both of his July starts in West Sacramento so far. The last time he pitched against the Mariners at home, he allowed four runs on five hits and four walks in six innings on May 5, and could do worse tonight now that Naylor’s on the roster. Still, advanced numbers suggest that he’s a better pitcher than Evans, and though he struggles mightily to induce either whiffs or strikeouts, Seattle ranks near the bottom of the league in both of those stats.
Seattle Mariners at Athletics pick, best bet
Best Bet: Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-119)
Though the Athletics are hot, the Mariners are a bona fide playoff team that only got better at the deadline and are led by an MVP front-runner who also happens to be a Platinum Glove winner. Severino might be slightly better than Evans overall, but not at Sutter Health Park.
Strong Lean: Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Runs (+160)
This admittedly doesn’t feel like amazing value for Big Dumper, but Sutter Health Park has been the ninth-most homer friendly for lefties this season and he’ll hit from that side of the plate with the right-handed Severino on the mound. Though Severino has only given up 13 homers, 17 of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fence in West Sacramento.
