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MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Tuesday 7/29/25

MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Tuesday 7/29/25

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By: Garion Thorne

Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home runs during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.

All 30 teams are taking the field on Tuesday — sometimes twice — which means we have hundreds of home run props to choose from on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my top three picks.

Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook

Christian Yelich 1+ Home Run (+475)

With his long ball on Monday night, Yelich hit the 20 home run plateau for the first time since all the way back in 2019, when then balls were, well, going slightly farther than they would in later seasons. What would be a better celebration for the accomplishment than hitting his 21st of the campaign on Tuesday? As you might expect from the veteran LHB, Yelich has crushed right-handed pitching in 2025, mustering a .236 ISO and a 139 wRC+ in his 289 plate appearances within the split. This evening, the right-hander in question will be Colin Rae — Yelich’s former teammate. Rae has had his issues keeping the ball in the park all season long, and he’s specifically struggled in opposite-hand matchups. To wit, Rae has conceded an eye-popping 2.29 opponent home runs per nine to the left-handed hitters he’s faced in his second stint with the Cubs.

Vinnie Pasquantino 1+ Home Run (+380)

Count Pasquantino among the many players this season who got off to a terrible start in March and April, only to completely rebound after the calendar flipped to May. In fact, dating back to May 1, Pasquantino is slashing .298/.358/.476 with 13 home runs and a 130 wRC+. He’s been even better against RHPs in that span, managing a .901 OPS and a 149 wRC+ over 244 plate appearances. Now he’ll get to try and improve upon those numbers against Atlanta’s newest starter — second-newest if you count yesterday’s trade for Carlos Carrasco. Erick Fedde will make his Braves debut on Tuesday after getting designated for assignment by the Cardinals last week. Why was the veteran DFA’d? Look no further than a 5.22 ERA and a 5.80 xERA. Woof. Still, Atlanta is desperate for innings and Fedde can eat them up like no one’s business. That should lead to at least three matchups with Pasquantino, which is red flag for Fedde, as he’s surrendered 1.81 home runs per nine to opposing lefties in 2025.

Nick Kurtz 1+ Home Run (+225)

We can’t be that far away from Nick Kurtz’s home run odds being shorter than +200 for Athletics’ home games. Since his debut back on April 23, the only qualified player with a higher expected wOBA (.437) than Kurtz is Aaron Judge. The only two qualified players with a higher ISO (.368) are Judge and Shohei Ohtani. That’s the level of superstar we’re dealing with here; a fact that was brought to the national spotlight last Friday when Kurtz racked up four long balls and 19 total bases in a single night. Kurtz is also in possession of a 99th percentile barrel rate (21.3%) and a 98th percentile average exit velocity (93.8) because of course he is. He’s the perfect hitting machine. Logan Evans will attempt to slow down the former fourth-overall pick this evening, but the fellow rookie’s 5.51 xERA doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence. Nor does the fact that Evans is allowing 1.71 opponent long balls per nine away from T-Mobile Park this season.

Garion is a Toronto-based writer who has been playing fantasy sports since elementary school. With a particular affinity for advanced statistics and sabermetrics, he’s been covering DFS Baseball, Football and Basketball for DraftKings dating back to 2018. Prior to that, Garion’s work could be found at FNTSY, SportsGrid, HoopsHype, The New York Daily News and Sportsnet.ca. Still, he is a Dolphins fan, so his decision-making can be questioned from time-to-time.
Disclaimer

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.