As the Philadelphia Phillies chase the New York Mets atop the NL East — currently, they’re one and a half games back — they’d normally relish a series against the Chicago White Sox, who have nothing to play for. But Chicago has looked like a completely different team since the All-Star break, so the Phillies can’t take them lightly in the teams’ three-game series, which begins at 8:10 p.m. ET tonight.
For the series opener, the White Sox will start Davis Martin, and Philadelphia will counter with All-Star snub Christopher Sánchez.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox prediction, preview
After a 6-1 start to the second half, the White Sox cooled down a little bit, with back-to-back losses to the crosstown Chicago Cubs in which their offense combined for just five runs. Still, being second in OPS and first in runs since the All-Star break behind the league-leading Toronto Blue Jays is something that Chicago should be proud of, and given that it has had a league-average offense (and a 15-16 record) over its last 31 games, that form isn’t all that unsustainable. The Phillies, meanwhile, have gone 5-4 since the All-Star break, pairing the third-best offense with an average pitching staff.
The White Sox lost in Martin’s first start of the second half, as he conceded four runs (three earned) on three hits and four walks in five innings for his sixth-lowest game score of the season. He’s had excellent control overall — he’s allowed just eight free passes in seven home starts — so I would expect him to bounce back, even against a Philadelphia team that has walked at the league’s seventh-highest rate in 2025. However, he gives up tons of hard hits, and the Phillies have laced the cover off of the ball all season. He’ll have to hope that Philadelphia’s below-average offense away from the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park continues.
Regardless, Martin loses the starting pitching matchup resoundingly to Sánchez.. The La Romana, Dominican Republic native ranks third in the NL with a 2.40 ERA and seventh in strikeouts, and in his last 10 starts, he’s been even better (1.69 ERA and a 69:12 strikeout-to-walk ratio). Sánchez has no exploitable weaknesses, ranking above the median in every single Statcast category, and while his pitch mix is simple, both his sinker and changeup are extremely effective. He’s closest to the pack in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, and Chicago is merely average in both of those categories. Plus, he’s been even better on the road, with just a 2.17 ERA on unfriendly turf.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 Alternate Spread (+114)
I believe that the White Sox’s recent form is pretty legitimate, but with Sánchez taking the mound, this is a bad matchup. Advanced analytics aren’t as kind to Martin as the basic numbers are, and they are extremely high on the red-hot southpaw.
Strong Lean: Cristopher Sánchez O18.5 Outs Recorded (+125)
Sánchez is a workhorse who has finished the seventh inning in seven of his last eight starts, has averaged 96.2 pitches per start in his last two months, and already has three complete games in 73 career starts. Chicago averages the 10th-most pitches per plate appearance, but the sample size is large enough where plus-money is a bargain, especially with an off day scheduled for Thursday.
