I’ve already picked my winner in the Mountain West, putting a play in on Boise State to three-peat in 2025. But I’m going to look to thread the needle here, as I feel strongly about who the Broncos will face in the conference title game. The San Jose State Spartans have a talented roster, and really benefit from a favorable schedule.
The Spartans return six starters on each side of the ball, following a 7-5 season that saw them spring a couple of upsets. After going back and forth between quarterbacks, Walker Eget ultimately won the job, and improved once his playing time was consistent. Eget returns this season, behind three returning starters on the offensive line and San Jose State’s top three rushers. While the top-two receivers depart, there is some depth here to replace the position, particularly with portal additions.
While the Spartans return some encouraging talent, the most attractive aspect of their path to the Mountain West Title Game is their schedule. All the major publications have San Jose State as a top-three team in the conference, with notable outlets like Phil Steele and Lindy’s ranking the Spartans as the No. 2 team.
Boise State is the clear cut No. 1 team in the conference, while UNLV is the unanimous other team ranked in the top-three. SJSU avoids both of them in the regular season, along with another top-five team in the conference in Colorado State. The toughest games in the Mountain West for the Spartans will be against Hawaii and Air Force, both of which they host in November.
Outside of a Week 2 trip to Austin to face the Longhorns, which has nothing to do with reaching the MW Title Game, every game on San Jose State’s schedule is one that it can realistically win. I expect to see the Spartans playing on that first Friday night in December, and maybe even host Boise State for the conference.
It’s worth noting that early money indicates that SJSU to reach the conference title game is a pretty sharp play. Obviously, this isn’t as heavily bet of a market as other conferences, but as of July 28 on DraftKings Sportsbook, 74% of the money in this market is on SJSU, despite receiving only 12% of the bets. That action pushed the price down from +220 to +190, but I still think the price is favorable.
To Make Mountain West Title Game: San Jose State Spartans (+190) – 1-unit
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