Looking for the best MLB picks and player props for Monday, July 28, 2025? You’re in the right place. I’ve highlighted my top betting targets for tonight’s MLB slate, including player prop value on Jarren Duran and Spencer Torkelson, plus a team total angle backing the Rangers against a struggling starter. Here’s everything you need to know before placing your bets tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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MLB Picks Today: Top Player Props and Team Bets for Monday, July 28, 2025
Jarren Duran 3+ H/R/RBI +130 vs. Minnesota Twins
This is a great spot for Jarren Duran against Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson. Not only does Woods Richardson struggle against left-handed hitters, but his issues are even more pronounced on the road. When pitching away from home, he owns a .420 wOBA against lefties and has allowed five of the 11 home runs he’s given up this season. Overall, lefties have tagged him for a .345 wOBA.
Duran has been hot at the plate since the All-Star break, recording at least three combined hits, runs, or RBIs in three of the seven games he’s started. He also matches up well against Woods Richardson’s pitch arsenal, which primarily consists of a four-seam fastball and a slider.
Against four-seam fastballs, Duran has posted a .387 wOBA and a .233 ISO. He’s similarly effective against sliders, with a .389 wOBA and a .200 ISO. All signs point to a strong performance ahead for the Red Sox outfielder in this matchup.
Spencer Torkelson over 1.5 total bases +120 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Spencer Torkelson has been crushing left-handed pitching this season, and he enters tonight’s game with elite splits: a .410 wOBA, .343 ISO, and a 167 wRC+ against southpaws. That spells trouble for Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled with one of his primary pitches—the four-seam fastball.
Rodriguez continues to rely heavily on his four-seamer, despite it being ineffective this season. Opposing hitters have tagged that pitch for a .422 wOBA and a .324 ISO. It’s also a pitch Torkelson is thriving against, posting a .476 wOBA and an eye-popping .500 ISO against four-seamers.
Given the matchup and pitch profile, I’m backing Torkelson to record at least two total bases tonight against the Diamondbacks.
Texas Rangers team total over 5.5 runs +114 vs. Los Angeles Angels
Asking for six runs from any team can be a tall order—but the Texas Rangers are well-positioned to deliver against the Los Angeles Angels and starter Jack Kochanowicz.
This will be Kochanowicz’s third outing against the Rangers this season, and the results so far have been rough. Over just 7.1 innings, he’s allowed 12 earned runs on 16 hits, posting a bloated 14.73 ERA and a 5.82 FIP in those appearances. That includes his most recent start before the All-Star break, where he gave up eight runs in just 2.2 innings.
Kochanowicz leans heavily on his sinker, and that’s a problem against this Rangers offense. Texas is one of the league’s best teams against the sinker, and tonight’s projected lineup has a combined .338 wOBA and a .147 ISO against that pitch type.
All signs point toward another tough outing for Kochanowicz and a strong offensive showing from the Rangers.
Steve Buchanan’s Total Bases Parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook
Every Monday and Friday, I have a featured parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook. Today’s includes 3+ H/R/RBI for Jarren Duran, Jose Altuve, and Corey Seager. To take this parlay, you can click the “Add to betslip” button below.
Good luck with these MLB picks tonight!
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