All 30 teams in Major League Baseball are in action under the lights this Monday. A whole new set of series begins on Monday, giving everyone plenty of home run props to consider. If you’re looking to start your work week with a bang by connecting on some home run props on Monday, check out my top three options. After examining the environments, matchups, splits and current form, my favorite home run props for Monday highlight three slugging lefties. I’m playing Addison Barger, Corey Seager and Nick Kurtz.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences with these home run props–all these props are long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, there’s never certainty. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their extreme volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. It also makes sense to blend these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at a small unit size in round robins, which boosts their ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Sunday’s slate.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Addison Barger to record 1+ home runs (+280)
Barger and the Blue Jays open a new series this Monday night with a good matchup in Baltimore at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. While it sometimes goes under the radar as a home run venue, Oriole Park has given up the second-most home runs in the majors this season.
Not only is the environment a good one, but the matchup is also juicy for Barger since he’ll be going up against Zach Eflin. Eflin has allowed 16 homers and a 39.8% hard-hit rate in his 13 starts this season. His 2.25 HR/9 should set up the Jays to hit some homers on Monday, especially from the left-hand side. Lefties have hit 14 of those 16 homers against Eflin this season with a .323 batting average and .422 wOBA.
Barger has brought plenty of lefty pop to the Blue Jays order since joining the team in mid-April. He’s hitting .268 with 14 homers and a .350 wOBA on the year and has elite advanced metrics.
He ranks in the top 10 in the majors with a 55.0% hard-hit rate. His average exit velocity of 93.3 miles per hour ranks No. 13 of qualified hitters in the majors.
Since the All-Star break, he’s hitting .308 with a .358 wOBA and a 60% hard-hit rate. He only has one homer in those 10 games, but it was an impressive one.
With so much raw power potential and a great matchup, Barger is in a good spot to target for home run props on Monday.
Corey Seager to record 1+ home runs (+235)
Seager is another lefty in a great matchup against a pitcher who struggles on that side of the splits.
He and the Rangers take on the Angels in an AL West series to start the week and will take on Jack Kochanowicz, who the Halos are bringing back up from Triple-A. Kochanowicz gave up 16 homers in his 19 starts before being sent to the minors with a 6.03 ERA and 5.55 FIP. Lefties hit .320 against him with a .383 wOBA and 13 of the 16 homers he allowed.
Seager has reached base in 27 straight games and has eight homers during that span, with a .340 batting average, .469 wOBA and a 59.7% hard-hit rate.
Seager is 2-for-3 with two walks against Kochanowicz in their past meetings and will look to take him yard on Monday night to hit this home run prop. Seager has two homers since the All-Star break, and on the season he has been fairly even in both home/road and right/left splits.
Seager seems to be in a smash spot Monday night in Anaheim.
Nick Kurtz to record 1+ home runs (+225)
In another game from the West Coast, Nick Kurtz and the A’s will come home for the first time since the All-Star break to homer-happy Sutter Health Park–as if Kurtz needs a boost from a friendly environment.
The 22-year-old lefty is up to 23 homers in just 67 games in the majors, and 11 of those have come in his 20 games in July. He had his historic performance last week against Houston, but he has been a great option for fantasy baseball and plenty of props since he was called up back on April 23.
He’s hitting .309 overall, buoyed by his scalding hot stretch since July 4. Over his 18 games since then, he’s hitting .478 with a .690 wOBA. He boosted both his average and his wOBA with his huge performance last week:
Kurtz is hitting .348 against righties with 19 of his 23 homers on that side of the split, and 13 of his homers have come at Sutter Health Park, even though he has played three fewer home games than road games.
On Monday, he’ll take on veteran Luis Castillo and the Mariners. Castillo has a 4.74 road ERA and 4.53 xFIP on the road. He has given up a 5.00 xFIP to lefties, who have made excellent contact against him all season.
Kurtz did sit out Sunday with “lower-body soreness/fatigue,” but he’ll be fired up to get back in the mix at home on Monday night. As long as he’s in the lineup, he’s a strong way to round out the night’s home run props.
