The Los Angeles Dodgers’ summer malaise continued this past weekend with a 2-1 series defeat against the Boston Red Sox in the first series of a nine-game road trip. The back-to-back defeats leave Los Angeles just four games ahead of the San Diego Padres atop the NL West, with a three-game set against the Cincinnati Reds set to start today.
The Dodgers have the right man on the mound to bounce back — three-time Eiji Sawamura Award winner Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Reds, meanwhile, will start top prospect Chase Burns.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds prediction, preview
Now that July is almost entirely in the books, the splits for the month constitute a pretty large sample size, and it’s not looking great for either of these teams. Los Angeles ranks third-to-last in OPS since July 1, with Cincinnati fifth-to-last, but given the absurd talent on the Dodgers’ roster, that’s an especially disappointing result. With the MLB trade deadline coming up on Thursday, Los Angeles is widely expected to pursue a relief pitcher, and the Reds’ strategy is less obvious. Either way, both offenses will need to get hot for either team to fully live up to its potential.
The Dodgers’ offense might not need to be hot today with Yamamoto on the mound. Though the 26-year-old Japanese hurler didn’t have his best stuff in his most recent start last Tuesday, giving up a trio of runs in the second inning en route to a five-inning no-decision in a game Los Angeles eventually lost, he got a little bit unlucky because of a Miguel Rojas error and settled down nicely afterwards. He’s proven himself to be elite all season, and though he still struggles occasionally with walks and hard hits — ranking near the middle of the pack league-wide in both categories — Cincinnati has posted the fourth-lowest average exit velocity, fourth-lowest barrel rate, and third-lowest hard-hit percentage, though it does walk at an above-average rate.
Dueling with Yamamoto and his high-powered supporting cast will be a tough test for the young Burns, whose first five MLB starts haven’t been incredible. Though his FIP is a respectable 3.78, he’s gotten no favors from his defense and sports a 6.65 ERA after allowing seven hits and six runs (five earned) in 5.2 innings last Tuesday. The 22-year-old’s tools are absolutely there — his fastball regularly touches 100 miles per hour — and his strikeout, chase, and whiff rates are all high, but when hitters do make contact, they tend to hit it hard, and he also walks plenty of batters. Though the Dodgers — who make lots of hard contact and have the league’s second-highest walk rate — are a bad matchup, Burns has been solid at home and should be able to give his team a chance.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 9 (-105)
Both of these teams have been quite poor offensively over the last month, and while Los Angeles did score 10 runs in Yamamoto’s last start, he historically hasn’t gotten much run support. Burns has pitched better than the numbers indicate and he deserves another quality start.
Strong Lean: Shohei Ohtani 1st Plate Appearance – Exact Result: Home Run (+1200)
Is it too much to equate Burns and Jacob Misiorowski as the two highly-touted flamethrowers who made their debuts within a few weeks of each other and figure that Ohtani welcome Burns to The Show with a homer just as he did Misiorowski? Probably, but I shouldn’t have to justify Ohtani hitting a homer in his first plate appearance given that he’s done it thrice in his last six games.
