Every single MLB team takes the diamond on Monday evening — out in Texas, the Houston Astros welcome the Washington Nationals for the start of a three-game set. The home team still leads the AL West but has floundered a bit as of late, so they need to bounce back tonight against the visitors in what should be a winnable contest.
Here’s an Astros vs. Nationals prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s outing.
Astros vs. Nationals prediction, preview
The Astros are still 60-46 on the campaign and one of the MLB’s top teams over the last couple of months, but they’ve hit some serious bumps in the road while dealing with a litany of injuries. They’re 4-6 since the All-Star Game while missing their own honorees Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes, neither of whom seem particularly close to a return. A sweep at the hands of the Athletics certainly hurt in their last series, too. Meanwhile, the Nationals are just 43-62 this year as they rebuild, but they’ve won four of nine games since the league resumed play and just took two consecutive contests against the Minnesota Twins.
These teams have performed quite similarly following the All-Star break. Houston bats .241 with a .309 OBP and 38 runs, while Washington bats .247 with an identical OBP and 39 runs. They should be pretty evenly matched given the form of each squad, but the pitching matchups make up the difference in tonight’s outing.
The Astros send star southpaw Framber Valdez (2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 129 SO) to the mound this evening. He faces young right-hander Brad Lord (3.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 57 SO) whose numbers do look quite solid, but the Nationals’ hurler doesn’t stack up to the elite play of Valdez this season.
Astros vs. Nationals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as strong home favorites today with -267 odds on the Moneyline. The Nationals come in as +213 underdogs on the road with a low run total of 7.5 for this contest.
It’s easy to see why the Astros are favorites tonight given Valdez’s excellent play this year. Not only does the veteran continues to post strong outings, but he’s doing so while going deep into games more often than not. As an elite ground-ball pitcher, the lefty limits bit plays and delivers 90th-percentile pitching run value.
Valdez has only allowed five earned runs over his last five starts, with four of those earned runs coming on July 5 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Otherwise, he’s allowed just one or no earned runs in four of those starts dating back to June 24. With such a streak heading into a matchup with one of the MLB’s lower-level units, I’m taking Valdez to pitch another near-scoreless outing by going under 1.5 earned runs.
Best bet: Framber Valdez under 1.5 earned runs allowed (+100)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
