This is the second game of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Colorado Rockies.
Brandon Pfaadt is scheduled to pitch for Arizona while Casey Mize is slated to start for Detroit.
Diamondbacks at Tigers prediction, preview
Brandon Pfaadt used to sport a strikeout rate above 20%. Now it’s at 19.8%. The control is good, though, with a 5.2% walk rate, but he’s been getting hit hard. The average exit velocity is 91.8 mph, the barrel rate is 12.9% and the hard hit rate is 47.7%. He has allowed 17 home runs in 111.2 innings. Not an egregious number but the hard contact is concerning. Pfaadt has a 4.76 ERA while the FIP is lower at 4.31.
Lefties have had more success, as the K-BB% is 6.4% lower while the FIP is 1.18 higher. Pfaadt has been much better at home, as the FIP is 2.75 compared to 6.03 on the road. The K-BB% is 12.2% on the road while the HR/9 is a whopping 2.38.
In 21 starts, Pfaadt has gone at least six innings 10 times. He’s allowed more than three earned runs seven times. This will be the first time facing Detroit this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have struck out at the third-highest rate while having the 10th-best ISO. The wOBA is 16th-best in MLB.
Casey Mize has been very solid this season. The ERA is 3.4 while the FIP is 3.78. He’s averaging 94.8 mph on the fastball. The swinging strike rate is 10.5% while the chase rate is 29.5%. He is getting hit hard and the fly ball rate is 41.4%, but the advanced numbers aren’t egregious.
Mize has reverse splits, as righties have had more success against him. The K-BB% is 7.8% lower while the FIP is 4.93, compared to 2.81 against lefties. He’s been site neutral.
Mize has allowed more than three earned runs four times, with two of those in the last two outings. He allowed four earned runs in four innings in Pittsburgh and six earned runs in three innings against Seattle at home. This will be the first time facing Arizona this season.
The Diamondbacks have struck out at the 16th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being second in ISO. The wOBA is best.
As for bullpens, Arizona has the 26th-lowest FIP while Detroit has the 20th-lowest.
Diamondbacks at Tigers pick, best bet
Pfaadt has struggled on the road, while the Diamondbacks bullpen has been known to give up a run or two. Mize’s recent form hasn’t been good, but he’s been solid for much of the season. That gives me some pause, but Arizona has been potent against right-handed pitching.
