This is the opener of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Arizona Diamondbacks.
Eduardo Rodriguez is scheduled to pitch for Arizona while Troy Melton is slated to start for Detroit.
Diamondbacks at Tigers prediction, preview
Eduardo Rodriguez only averages 91.9 mph on the fastball, but he misses bats and limits hard contact. The swinging strike rate is 10.2%, chase rate is 29.3% and strikeout rate is 23.1%. The average exit velocity is 88.4 mph while the hard hit rate is 33.9%. The issue is that Rodriguez is a flyball pitcher (43.3% flyball rate) and the HR/FB is 13.8%. So, when batters connect, balls often go into the seats. Through 86.2 innings, Rodriguez has allowed 16 home runs. He has experienced some bad luck, as the BABIP is .364 while the strand rate is 68.3%. That said, the FIP is still 4.48 while the ERA is 5.5.
Twelve of the 16 home runs have come against righties, but he’s faced way more righties than lefties on the season. Rodriguez has been better on the road, as the K-BB% is 8.6% higher while the FIP is almost a run lower.
In 17 starts, Rodriguez has allowed more than three earned runs seven times. He’s allowed eight earned runs twice! Two of the three most recent starts encapsulate the ERod experience. Against Houston at home, he did not allow an earned run in 6.1 innings. Three starts ago against Kansas City at home, he struck out seven but allowed eight earned runs in 4.1 innings. This will be the first time facing Detroit this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Tigers have struck out at the 17th-highest rate while having the ninth-best ISO. The wOBA is sixth-best in MLB.
Troy Melton is making his second career MLB start. In his first one, he went five innings, struck out seven, walked two and allowed six earned runs on seven hits (two home runs) in Pittsburgh. Melton averaged 96.7 mph on the fastball. Throughout his minor league career, the K/9 was over 10 and the control was good. He also didn’t have a home run problem, but this is the majors. Melton did get unlucky in the opener, as the BABIP was .385 and the strand rate was 48.4%.
The Diamondbacks have struck out at the 19th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being second in ISO. The wOBA is best in MLB.
As for bullpens, Arizona has the 25th-lowest FIP while Detroit has the 20th-lowest.
Diamondbacks at Tigers pick, best bet
I like the offenses to reign supreme in this one. Cover the eyes of the old timers and children because it could get ugly out there.
