The WNBA features a five-game slate on Sunday, July 27. Starting at 6:00 p.m. ET, the Washington Mystics will host the Phoenix Mercury.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. Phoenix produced a 68-62 victory back on May 25th, but plenty has changed for each of these teams since that point.
Looking at today’s odds, the Phoenix Mercury enter as eight-point favorites and -325 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mystics hold +260 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 162.5.
Mercury at Mystics preview
The Phoenix Mercury enters with a 15-9 record and sits in third place in the WNBA standings. They rank sixth in the league in points scored and points allowed, as well as in offensive and defensive rating. Phoenix ranks fourth in the league in three-point volume and connects at the second-best efficiency. They also tally the third-most assists per contest and force turnovers at the highest rate in the WNBA. The Mercury play at the third-quickest pace and ranks fifth in assists-to-turnover ratio.
Satau Sabally headlines the production for the Mercury, averaging 18.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. Alyssa Thomas is capable of impacting the game in a variety of ways and enters today averaging 15.1 points, 9.4 assists, and 7.8 rebounds per game. Kahleah Copper made her return from knee surgery and is set to play her ninth game today. Across her first eight matchups, she is averaging 15.5 points and 3.1 rebounds while shooting a team-best 43.6% from beyond the three-point arc (minimum three 3PA). DeWanna Bonner has made her impact felt after returning to the Mercury after starting the season on the Indiana Fever. The six-time All-Star is averaging 13.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists while shooting 40.0% from beyond the three-point arc across her opening five games with the team. Sami Whitcomb is the last member of the team to be averaging in double figures with 10.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per contest.
The Washington Mystics hold a 12-12 record on the season, which puts them in seventh place in the WNBA standings. They have some offensive struggles, ranking 11th in the league in points per game and 11th in offensive rating, but are fifth in opponents’ points allowed. Washington attempts the fewest three-point attempts per game, with their 16.3 per contest being four attempts per game fewer than the Connecticut Sun, who rank 12th in this category. They also rank ninth in opponents’ three-point attempts but are second in opponents’ three-point efficiency. Washington ranks fifth in opponents’ turnovers forced.
Brittney Sykes headlines the production for the Mystics, averaging 16.8 points, 4.5 assists, and 3.6 rebounds per game. Kiki Irafen provides the balance in the frontcourt and is producing 11.8 points per game while leading the team in rebounding at 8.4 per contest. Sonia Citron adds 13.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, while Shakira Austin has emerged as an impact player. The fourth-year forward is producing career-best 12.7 points while leading the team in steals and blocks. Sug Sutton also leads the team in three-point percentage at 42.6% while averaging 7.6 points and 3.1 assists.
Mercury at Mystics prediction, pick
The Phoenix Mercury are a title contender on paper, but are still putting the pieces together. The midseason roster changes have not helped with this process, and they have had some recent growing pains. Phoenix enters this game on a three-game losing skid, with each loss coming by 11 points or greater.
Washington has won four of their last six games and five of their last six at home. They are coming off an impressive victory over the Seattle Storm last night, but will need to turn around and be ready to produce again today. The Mystics are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog of five points or more.
In the long haul, the Mercury is the clear better team. But they are still working their way to playing to their peak. This is a great spot for the Mystics to capitalize on and ride their recent momentum. While I think an outright victory is in play, I am backing the eight-point spread being too much for the Mercury to cover. Count on this game remaining competitive throughout and for the Mystics to have a chance to win outright.
