Major League Baseball has a full Sunday of baseball with all 30 teams in action. The Mets and Giants are the Sunday Night Baseball showcase with the Mariners-Angels the only other game starting after 3:00 p.m. ET. The other 13 games are all in the early wave of games, giving everyone plenty of options to consider for home run props this Sunday afternoon on DraftKings Sportsbook. After examining the environments, matchups, splits and current form, my top home run props for Sunday are from Jordan Westburg, Mike Tauchman, and Julio Rodriguez.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences with these home run props–all these props are long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, there’s never certainty. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their extreme volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. It also makes sense to blend these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at a small unit size in round robins, which boosts their ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Sunday’s slate.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jordan Westburg to record 1+ home runs (+260)
Westburg is hitting leadoff for the Orioles on Sunday afternoon against Austin Gomber and the Rockies. Westburg has dealt with multiple injuries this season, but since returning from a finger injury on July 4, he has been healthy and productive.
In his 17 games since that injury, he has 21 hits including four homers, most recently going hard to start the scoring on Friday in this series.
Westburg has a 41.8% hard-hit rate and 9.1% barrel rate in his last 17 games. He has 11 homers on the season, and more than half have come at home. Three have come against lefties like Gomber, and he has a .349 wOBA at home against southpaws.
Gomber is 0-4 in his seven starts with a 6.03 ERA and 5.19 FIP. He has given up seven homers in seven starts, and that’s not just from pitching at Coors Field. In fact, he has given up two homers in 14 innings on the road and allowed a .337 road wOBA. Righties like Westburg have hit five of the seven homers he has given up this season.
Westburg is leading off for Baltimore for the first time since mid June, and he’s also firmly leading off my home run props this Sunday.
Mike Tauchman to record 1+ home runs (+450)
In Chicago, the White Sox and Cubs have split the first two games of the Windy City series, and Tauchman has gone yard twice against his former team from across town.
Tauchman is up to seven homers in 52 games this season, with a .287 batting average and .370 wOBA. He has a 45.3% hard-hit rate, which would be a new personal best, and he also has a 21.1% barrel rate in his last seven games.
Chasing a home run streak is somtimes a faulty strategy with home run props, since players can’t continue streaks forever. However, the fact that he’s hitting leadoff against righties should put him in a great spot once again in this. matchup with Cubs starter Ben Brown.
Brown spent a month in the minors and returned with a disastrous outing with seven runs (six earned) over four innings in long relief against Kansas City. He’s 4-7 on the season with a 6.48 ERA and has given up 15 homers in 17 games. Lefties have hit 11 of those 15 homers with a .302 batting average and .397 wOBA against him.
Tauchman will look to continue his surge and Brown’s struggles on Sunday afternoon at Rate Field, and getting the lefty at this value in his home run props is a solid play, and he’ll continue to boost his trade value if he keeps slugging.
Julio Rodriguez to record 1+ home runs (+360)
Rodriguez is also on a homer binge, smashing four homers in the first three games of this series in Anaheim.
Rodriguez started the season slowly, but as has been his pattern since he arrived in the majors, he’s heating up after the All-Star break.
In his last 12 games, Rodriguez has gone 18-for-50 (.360) with seven homers and a .518 wOBA. During that stretch, he has a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 22.9% barrel rate.
He’ll look to keep it going in Sunday afternoon’s late game against Kyle Hendricks, who has given up five homers in five games over 23 2/3 innings. Righties have done most of the damage against Hendricks this season, posting a .309 batting average and .376 wOBA along with 12 of the 17 homers against him.
Rodriguez will look to continue his great series in Anaheim in this favorable spot, and I love that his odds are still so long to go yard once again.
