The WNBA features a five-game slate on Sunday, July 27. Among the most intriguing matchups will be the Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings.
Neither of these teams has gotten off to the start they desired this season. Las Vegas sits in seventh place in the WNBA standings with a 12-13 record, while Dallas is in 12th place with a 7-18 record. The Wings have had some clear growing pains following the addition of Paige Bueckers, with Arike Ogunbowale especially struggling in her role shift. But Dallas has shown some signs of life in recent games.
The Aces enter as 9.5-point favorites and -485 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Wings hold +370 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 163.
Aces at Wings preview
The Aces made a massive trade this offseason to send away four-time All-Star Kelsey Plum and have not fully found their footing without her. Las Vegas ranks ninth in the league in scoring at 80.4 points per game and ninth in opponents’ points allowed at 82.7 points. They play at the seventh quickest pace, but rank 11th in field goal and three-point percentage. Las Vegas is limiting opponents to the second-fewest three-point attempts, but ranks 10th in opponents’ three-point percentage. They also rank 12th in assists and are 11th in rebounding percentage.
A’ja Wilson continues to headline the production but is having a down year by her sky-high standards. The three-time MVP is averaging 22 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.3 blocks per game. Jackie Young adds 16.6 points, 4.1 assists and 4.0 rebounds per contest. Chelsea Gray is averaging 11.7 points, 4.3 assists and 3.9 rebounds while connecting on a team-high 36.6% of her three-point attempts. Jewell Loyd adds 10.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game.
Las Vegas is looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which came at the hands of the Fever and Lynx.
The Dallas Wings enter the matchup with a 7-18 record and have dropped five of their past six games. They rank seventh in the WNBA in scoring at 81.8 points per game and allow 85.8 points, which ranks 10th in the league. Dallas attempts the 10th-most three-point attempts, while ranking 10th in three-point percentage and 10th in field goal percentage. Defensively, opponents are connecting on shots at the fourth-best rate from the field against them and shooting the second-best three-point percentage. Teams also tally the most assists when facing them, and are getting to the free-throw line at the highest rate when playing the Wings.
Bueckers headlines the production for Dallas. The UConn product is averaging 18.1 points, 5.6 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game. Ogunbowale has taken a step back from her four-time All-Star standard, but is still adding 15.9 points, 3.9 assists and 2.5 rebounds per game. DiJonai Carrington is the lone other member of the team averaging double figures with 10.8 points and 5.2 rebounds per contest. Li Yueru leads the team in rebounding with 7.0 per game while adding 8.5 points and connecting on 40.7% of her three-point attempts.
This is the third matchup between these two teams this season. The Aces have come out victorious in both with an 88-84 win in the first game and 86-76 in the most recent contest.
Aces at Wings prediction, pick
Neither of these teams is on the pathway to making any serious postseason noise unless something drastic changes. The growing pains with the Wings have been more expected, but the Aces have failed to turn a corner on the season. Dallas got off to a 1-11 start to the season, but has gone 6-7 since then.
While it has not exactly translated to wins at the rate they desire, there have been some encouraging signs of growth with Bueckers and Ogunbowale learning to play together. A 9.5 spread is significant, and Las Vegas’ difficulties in putting teams away should be kept in mind. Five of its 12 wins have been by double digits, but three of these have been against the Connecticut Sun. Nine of the 18 losses Dallas has have been by 10+ points. However, the Wings hung in there for a four-point loss and a 10-point loss in their pair of matchups against the Aces. They also held a lead of seven points or larger in both games.
Las Vegas is coming off a 109-78 dismantling by the Minnesota Lynx. In contrast, the Wings are coming off their most impressive victory of the season over the Seattle Storm on Tuesday before suffering a respectable loss to the Valkyries. It feels as if Dallas has begun to figure some things out as the season has progressed, while the Aces will need to do some real roster evaluation following the year.
I am backing Dallas to keep it close and stay within the 9.5-point spread. Count on Bueckers and company to continue building and keep this a competitive matchup throughout.
