The Detroit Tigers have had the best record in baseball for most of the season, but in the last few weeks, they’ve fallen back to the pack. Slumps on either side of the All-Star break have left the Tigers with just a 1-10 record in their last 11 games and given the 49-53 Minnesota Twins at least a prayer of winning it.
The Twins’ stretch run will begin with a three-game series against the Washington Nationals, with the series opener beginning at 8:10 p.m. ET tonight. Zebby Matthews will take the mound for Minnesota, while Washington will trust staff ace MacKenzie Gore.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins prediction, preview
Minnesota has gotten off to a tough start to its second half. It has dropped both of its series 2-1, including a road series loss to the Colorado Rockies, who had previously been on pace to finish with the worst record in a 162-game season, and while another 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers is more forgivable, it looks less impressive given the Dodgers’ poor form as of late. The Twins’ pitching has continued to be an issue; over their last 50 games, they’ve posted a 5.19 ERA, which would be the league’s fourth-highest across the full season. Washington, meanwhile, is 3-3 since the intermission, though it ranks just 20th in both OPS and ERA across that span.
I can’t see Minnesota’s pitching fortunes improving today with Matthews on the mound. The 25-year-old has made five starts this season and pitched to a 6.26 ERA, and that’s actually his lower mark across his two seasons in baseball. It’s not that his numbers are skewed by one bad start; he’s only had one good one, when he gave up one run in four innings on June 4 against the Athletics. Maybe I’m being unfair to Matthews: he’s been elite in 36.2 innings with Triple-A St. Paul, his FIP is a much more reasonable 3.27, and he actually has plenty of tools, inducing chases, whiffs, and strikeouts at high levels. But the Twins have had the third-worst fielding unit this season, so his poor luck is probably sustainable.
Likewise, Gore excels at inducing chases, whiffs, and strikeouts while still producing better numbers across the board than Matthews does. Through the All-Star break, the southpaw had an impressive 3.02 ERA and 2.92 FIP, but he got rocketed in his first game back, as the San Diego Padres got to him for eight runs on eight hits and three walks in just 2.1 innings. That blowup outing was a combination of poor pitching and elite hitting, as his fastballs resulted in an expected wOBA of .600, still astronomically high but far below the .889 mark that the Padres actually posted against them. Given that his average velocities and spin rates were pretty consistent, I’m not too worried about his ability to bounce back tonight.
Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Washington Nationals Moneyline (+135)
Neither team is in tremendous form, and though Minnesota is eight games over .500 at home, the difference in quality between Gore and Matthews is big enough that I’m willing to take the chance on the less-talented Nationals at plus-odds.
Strong Lean: James Wood 2+ Total Bases (+140)
While Wood has struggled since the All-Star break, posting just a .174/.269/.261 slash line, Matthews throws predominantly four-seam fastballs and Wood has posted a .719 expected slugging percentage against the pitch this season. Three of his outs since the All-Star break have been hit north of 95 miles per hour, so he’s not quite as out of sorts as his slash line indicates.
