On May 7, the Blue Jays lost to the Angels and fell to 16-20. They had a run differential of -39. They were, for all intents and purposes, a bad baseball team. However, the season isn’t 36 games long for a reason.
Since that day, Toronto sports a record of 45-22 and, just for poetic measure, they now have a +39 run differential for the season as a whole. The cherry on top? After defeating the Tigers 11-4 on Thursday to open a four-game series at Commerica Park, the Blue Jays now own the best winning percentage in the American League (.592). It’s truly one of the wildest mid-season turn arounds that I can remember.
Can Toronto keep the good times rolling on Friday? Let’s preview this matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers prediction, preview
Jose Berrios’ past 10 starts have been… Interesting. On the whole, the veteran right-hander has pretty much been his usual self, posting a 3.47 ERA and a 3.79 FIP to go along with pedestrian marks in strikeout rate (20.2%) and walk rate (7.0%). However, the actual day-to-day results have been much more inconsistent. To wit, Berrios has surrendered at least four earned runs in four of those 10 outings. The other six? One earned run or fewer. Heck, this stretch includes a 14.2 inning scoreless streak that is bookmarked by a pair of six-run outbursts. You truly can’t know which version of the 31-year-old is going to show up on any given night.
That said, you might be able to lean towards “good Jose” on Friday. Not only is Commerica Park traditionally a pitcher’s haven, but the Tigers haven’t exactly been swinging the bats well lately. In July, Detroit sports the AL’s lowest batting average (.217) and its second-lowest wRC+ (88). Javier Baez is ice cold. Riley Greene is striking out at a 43.2% clip in the month. Gleyber Torres doesn’t have a home run since June 28. Things have been pretty bleak and this unit is mainly why the Tigers have dropped 10 of their last 11 contests. Heck, the lone victory was a 2-1 win over the Rangers where Tarik Skubal had to almost be perfect.
Conversely, the Blue Jays have had the best lineup in MLB during July, leading the league in average (.285), wOBA (.360) and wRC+ (132), all while also sporting baseball’s lowest strikeout rate (15.7%). It’s a combination of statistics that almost doesn’t seem possible and that’s what Keider Montero will have to navigate this evening. It’s been a rough go for the RHP in the past couple months, with Montero in possession of a 5.96 FIP over his last six appearances. That’s what can happen when you’re allowing 2.48 opponent home runs per nine. Woof.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-106)
The Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 games and are sending their worst starter to the mound to take on the hottest team in MLB. I know they’re at home, but why are they the slight favorites?
Strong Lean: Addison Barger 2+ Total Bases (+105)
Montero has surrendered a .404 wOBA to LHBs in 2025. Barger owns a 140 wRC+ off RHPs.
