Josh Heupel came over to Tennessee in 2021, and after an adjustment period in his first season as Head Coach, has run an elite offense with the Vols. With Hendon Hooker at quarterback in 2022, the Vols led the nation at 44.5 points per game. In 2023 with Joe Milton under center, Tennessee averaged 31.9 points (28th), and then last season averaged 32.9 points (26th) with Nico Iamaleava.
Welp, now Hooker and Milton are in the NFL, and after the college football version of a contract dispute, Imaleava departed for UCLA. Elite quarterback play has been crucial to the Vols’ success over the past three seasons, and they probably aren’t going to have it in 2025. After a couple of seasons at Appalachian State, Joey Aguilar was essentially traded for Nico, and comes over from UCLA to fill the void.
For the first time, Heupel is left without “his guy” at QB, and without obvious NFL-level talent at the position. But even beyond QB play, there are reasons to believe Tennessee could struggle offensively this season. While the defense maintained solid talent, the offense returns just five starters. Only one starter on the offensive line returns, which could lead to poor protection for the least talented QB that the Vols have had under center during Heupel’s tenure.
Dylan Sampson, the reigning SEC Offensive Player of the year out of Tennessee’s backfield, accounted for over 1,600 yards and 22 touchdowns last season. He now plays for the Cleveland Browns. Beyond the major loss of Sampson, the Vols also lost their top-three pass catchers off the 2024 roster. It’s tough to image this offense having anywhere near the explosiveness it has over the past three seasons. It’s also difficult to imagine this program winning led by its defense.
The one reason I can’t go too heavy against Tennessee in the win total market is the schedule, which is just as important as any factor. While the talent is clearly down, the path doesn’t have a ton of resistance. The Vols have three clear underdog spots in 2025 — vs. Georgia, at Alabama and at Florida. If chalk holds, they’d need to go perfect the rest of the way to go over their win total. With games against Oklahoma, Arkansas, Vandy and Syracuse, I’m not buying that the Vols can do that.
CFB Win Total Play: Tennesee UNDER 8.5 Wins (-135) – 1-unit
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