This is the opener of a three-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Philadelphia Phillies.
Taijuan Walker is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia while Will Warren is slated to start for New York.
Phillies at Yankees prediction, preview
Taijuan Walker is sporting a 3.75 ERA. Unfortunately, the FIP is much higher at 4.57. The BABIP and strand rates look fine, so what’s the culprit? Hmmm, the average exit velocity is 88.6 mph, the barrel rate is 6.2% and the hard hit rate is 38.3%, so he’s not getting blasted. The walk rate is 9.2%, elevated but not egregious. The strand rate of 74.3%? That’s the only thing I can see, and even that number isn’t too bad. Regardless, he has been fortunate so I wouldn’t put too much weight into the 3.75 ERA.
The K-BB% is only 5.8% against lefties, but he’s allowed six of nine home runs to righties. Walker has been worse at home because eight of the nine home runs have been served up there.
Walker has been in and out of the rotation. He’s made 10 starts, with only two of those coming in the most recent outings. He only went four innings in each. Prior to that, he was relegated to multi-inning relief appearances, two innings max. This will be the first time facing the Yankees this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have struck out at the eighth-highest rate while having the second-best ISO. The wOBA is second-best in MLB.
Will Warren only averages 93.2 mph on the fastball and the chase rate is only 24.3%, but the swinging strike rate is 9.9% and the strikeout rate is a robust 26.7%. His fastball and sinker have been deadly in the arsenal, helping to post a 44.8% ground ball rate. The FIP is only 3.66 compared to the 4.91 ERA, as the BABIP is an elevated .326. He’s also allowed only 11 home runs in 99 innings. Then I look at the 47 walks and want to puke. The stomach starts churning again after looking at the 45.6% hard hit rate, 90.8 mph average exit velocity and 9.2% barrel rate. Warren encompasses the full spectrum of emotional outcomes.
Warren has been slightly worse on the road, but the big discrepancy comes against lefties, as nine of the 11 home runs have come off their bats. The the K-BB% is only 7.4%, but against righties, that number is a whopping 26.8%.
Warren has pitched at least six innings three times. When he’s cooking, he’s flaying like Bobby. But when he’s off, even Ricky Vaughn covers his eyes. Warren has been unable to go at least four innings four times, with two of those at 1.1 and 1.2 innings. Warren has not allowed an earned run in four starts, but he’s given up more than three earned runs six times, with two outings of eight and seven earned runs. This will be the first time facing Philadelphia this season.
The Phillies have struck out at the 24th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 17th in ISO. The wOBA is 11th-best.
As for bullpens, Philadelphia has the 22nd-lowest FIP while New York has the 19th-lowest.
Phillies at Yankees pick, best bet
It really is a crap shoot with Warren. I just have no faith in Walker and the Phillies bullpen in Yankee Stadium.
