The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees find themselves in very similar situations. Both have recently lost their division leads. Both will be major players at the July 31 trade deadline. Now they face off in the closing days before deals are made.
New York started the party early by trading for Ryan McMahon from the Colorado Rockies. He fills a major need in the lineup, one that changes their outlook for the season. It also adds an interesting wrinkle to this series. The Yankees were expected to be a serious suitor for Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suárez, the prize of the trade deadline. Now they’re (presumably) out of the running and the Phillies might be throwing their hat in the ring.
Philadelphia is a -121 road favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s game. The total is set at 9.5 runs. Let’s preview this game before getting into my favorite pick.
Yankees vs. Phillies prediction, pick
While the teams are even on paper and the Yankees are at home, Philly gets a big edge in this one due to the lopsided pitching matchup.
Ranger Suárez is having an excellent season for Philadelphia. His 2.66 ERA is backed up by a 99th-percentile hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Suárez doesn’t wow you with velocity; he buckles your knees with elite off-speed pitches and a sinker-cutter mix. He’s got the rare blend of ground ball stuff that induces a lot of chases. Against a New York lineup that likes to swing often and swing big, Suárez is the wet blanket who can put out the fire.
Marcus Stroman, the Yankees’ starter, has a habit of starting fires. One of the worst starters in baseball last year, he got off to a rough beginning in 2025 as well. That has been better lately after giving up five runs against the Giants and not making it out of the first inning back in April. Over his four turns since returning, he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs three times with three earned runs in the other appearance.
Still, I don’t see a complete turnaround here. Stroman ranks below the tenth percentile in whiff rate, xERA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. This Phillies offense has been solid all season long and Stroman has been making lineups look like the 1950s Yankees over the last year-plus. I’m riding with Philly in this Saturday matinee.
