National League playoff contenders are set to meet in San Francisco. For the visiting Mets, tonight’s contest presents an opportunity to maintain their one-game lead in the NL East. The Giants, one game out of a postseason spot, need every win they can get down the stretch. Which of these two high-profile teams will come out on top? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between the Mets and the Giants.
The Giants are favorites (-144) over the Mets, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Mets vs. Giants prediction, preview
As far as July pitching matchups go, it doesn’t get much better than this. Toeing the slab for San Francisco will be staff ace Logan Webb, making his 22nd appearance of the season. It’s been another banner year for the workhorse, who currently leads the National League with 131.2 innings of work. During that time, he’s recorded a 3.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 140 strikeouts. With that being said, the two-time All-Star has looked shaky during his previous two outings. In those starts, he’s surrendered a combined ten runs to the Blue Jays and Dodgers.
Webb’s disappointing performances are somewhat understandable; Toronto and Los Angeles wield two of the league’s top lineups. However, it’s not as if Friday’s opponent is much easier. New York rosters several superstar hitters, including Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Juan Soto. Still, an inconsistent supporting cast has kept this offense from reaching elite status. This season, the Mets are only averaging the 14th-most runs per game in baseball (4.38). Over six career meetings with New York, Webb has notched a minuscule 2.13 ERA.
Fortunately for the Mets, they’ll have a solid arm of their own on the bump tonight. Clay Holmes, signed this offseason, has been a pleasant surprise. The closer-turned-starter has been a stabilizing force in New York’s rotation (3.48 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). However, the 32-year-old has begun to show signs of wear-and-tear. In four starts this month, he’s put up a 5.66 ERA. Most recently, the veteran coughed up four runs against the Reds.
It’s reasonable to assume Holmes is burnt out from a career-high 108.2 innings this season. If there’s any solace for the Mets, it’s not as if San Francisco is killing it at the plate. The Giants have accounted for the league’s sixth-lowest slugging percentage (.386) and seventh-lowest batting average (.237) against right-handed pitching.
Mets vs. Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: Giants ML (-144)
As good as Holmes and Webb have been, neither has looked sharp recently. Still, I’m more willing to trust the latter’s track record. The Mets have won four straight games, most of which came against a mediocre Angels pitching staff. Friday’s showdown presents a far more difficult challenge for New York’s hitters. Back the Giants and their ace as favorites at home.
