You have to love a Friday, right?
Not only are we hours away from the weekend, but there’s a full slate on baseball waiting for us as soon as the workday is finished. I feel like Fred Flintstone sliding down the tail of a brontosaurus, man.
Here are my MLB best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s action on the diamond.
Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles
Under 8.5 (+120)
I’m shocked that this game is listed at a 9.5 total. I’m even more shocked that I can adjust it down to 8.5 at plus-money. Who exactly is scoring all these runs tonight?
I mean, I get it. The Rockies and the Orioles aren’t exactly lauded for their pitching staffs. But at the same time, Kyle Freeland’s actually in the midst of a pretty decent campaign when you factor for home park. The veteran LHP might be rocking a 1.85 WHIP at Coors Field, yet he’s been much better on the road, managing a 3.52 FIP and holding opponents to a .306 wOBA within the split. Dean Kremer is solid, too. In fact, the RHP has registered a 2.00 ERA and a 2.73 FIP across his past six outings. In five of the six, Kremer’s surrendered a single earned run or fewer.
Still, I’ve buried the lede. Let’s discuss these lineups. The Orioles have been dreadful so far in July, with AL-low marks in both wOBA (.283) and wRC+ (80). Meanwhile, the Rockies have been their usual selves on away from Colorado, mustering a .208 batting average and a 68 wRC+ away from home.
I’d honestly consider taking this total down to 7.5. Maybe even 6.5. These teams can’t hit!
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
Blue Jays ML (-103)
While I can respect the larger trends at play here — namely the fact that Detroit is 32-19 as a home team in 2025 — I’m having a difficult time wrapping my head around the Blue Jays as an underdog on Friday.
The Jays aren’t just the hottest team in baseball, they’ve been the hottest team in baseball by a mile. In July, Toronto is leading the league in average (.285), wOBA (.360) and wRC+ (132), all while also sporting baseball’s lowest strikeout rate (15.7%). It’s a combination of statistics that makes this lineup the most dangerous in MLB at the moment. Conversely, the Tigers have been slumping to an absurd degree in the month. All-Stars Javier Baez, Riley Greene and Gleyber Torres have all been bad and that’s translated into an AL-low .217 batting average and an equally underwhelming 88 wRC+.
It’s not like Detroit has its ace going to the mound tonight, either. Instead of Tarik Skubal, who is on paternity leave, the Tigers will turn to Keider Montero. The right-hander has had his issues in recent outings, surrendering 2.48 opponent home runs per nine and sporting an inflated 5.96 FIP over his last six games. I’m not going to sit here and say I trust Jose Berrios all that much, yet he’s certainly the superior end of this pitching matchup.
