The Orioles have been vastly disappointing all year and their second half hasn’t been much better. They’re 2-5 since the All-Star break and are the only team below .500 in the AL East.
Baltimore does, however, return home for a three-game set against the Rockies, the worst team in the majors. Colorado is the only team with less than 30 wins and more than 70 losses so far.
The Orioles are -218 favorites on the moneyline, and the Rockies are +176 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 9.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Friday’s Orioles vs. Rockies matchup.
Orioles vs. Rockies prediction
This isn’t a marquee matchup, but it doesn’t make it any less important for each team or bettors.
The Orioles have been struggling and can get back on track against the lowly Rockies. That said, Colorado has been solid since the All-Star break. The Rockies are 4-2 since the break, including series wins against Minnesota and St. Louis.
Both of those were at home, and now the Rockies will travel across the country to play in Baltimore. Kyle Freeland will start for Colorado amid another average season. He’s above a 5.00 ERA, which is his status quo, but his 3.84 FIP indicates he’s better than his ERA suggests.
He’ll face a Baltimore team that’s struggling to consistently score runs. The Orioles have scored four, two, three, five, three, three and one in the seven games since the regular season resumed. They also average 4.08 runs per game, ranking 23rd in the majors.
One of the few teams worse is Colorado. The Rockies average 3.62 runs per game despite playing half of their games at Coors Field. The team has been better since the break, scoring six, eight, two, one, 10 and six runs in the six games, but it’ll have a tough test against Dean Kremer.
Kremer has a 4.06 ERA with a 3.85 FIP, which is nothing special, but he’s been on fire lately. He’s pitched back-to-back seven-inning outings, while allowing a total of six hits and one earned run. He did struggle in the start against the Braves on July 5, but he was excellent against the Rays on June 29.
In three of his four latest starts, he’s completed seven innings, allowed three hits and only allowed one earned run in one of the three games. He’s had nearly identical stats in three of his latest games, which makes it believable that he can do it again versus the Rockies.
Colorado hits the road, so it won’t have the home-field advantage of Coors Field. That could keep this game low-scoring for the most part.
Orioles vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Despite the hot start to the second half, the Rockies are not a good team. They’re going to return to their losing ways soon enough, and that could come as early as tonight against the Orioles.
This game could go either way, so Rockies moneyline isn’t a bad idea for those looking to root for Colorado. It isn’t my favorite bet, but the +176 odds are juicy.
Instead, my best bet is the under at 9.5. Kremer and Freeland are both solid pitchers that should be able to limit the offenses enough to keep the under alive. The Orioles and Rockies aren’t the best offenses to begin with, so this shouldn’t be too hard of a task, especially since the game isn’t at Coors Field.