This is the second game of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting Arizona Diamondbacks.
Merrill Kelly is scheduled to pitch for Arizona while Andrew Heaney is slated to start for Pittsburgh.
Diamondbacks at Pirates prediction, preview
Merrill Kelly doesn’t throw hard, averaging 92 mph on the fastball, but he does miss bats. The swinging strike rate is 10.8% while the chase rate is 31.8%. He does allow hard contact, as the hard hit rate is 43.8%, but Kelly keeps the ball on the ground and out of the seats. He’s allowed only 13 home runs in 122 innings. Kelly is posting a 3.32 ERA, which is supported by the 3.48 FIP.
Lefties have had more success against the Kelly, as the strikeout rate is lower and nine of the 13 home runs have come off their bats. Kelly has been slightly better on the road. The K-BB% is 4.6% better while eight of the 13 home runs have been served up at home.
Kelly has allowed more than three earned runs four times. One of those was a nine-earned-run clobbering in New York against the Yankees during his second start of the season. He’s allowed fewer than three earned runs 14 times, with three of those without an earned run. Kelly has pitched at least six innings 13 times. This will be the first time facing Pittsburgh this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates have struck out at the sixth-highest rate while having the 30th-best ISO. The wOBA is 29th-best in MLB.
Andrew Heaney used to post a K/9 over 10 despite averaging 92 mph on the fastball. Now, he’s averaging 90.2 mph on the fastball with a paltry K/9 of 6.53. He’s also walking batters (8%) and has allowed 20 home runs in 102 innings. The ERA is 5.03 and the FIP is 5.34. Heaney is allowing an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, a barrel rate of 10.6% and a hard hit rate of 44.7%.
Twelve of the 20 home runs have been hit by righties. Thirteen of the home runs have been served up on the road.
Heaney has allowed more than three earned runs eight times, which includes seven earned runs three times in the last six starts. Heaney has gone at least six innings eight times, but four of those happened in the first five starts. Heaney faced Arizona back in May, going five innings, striking out two, walking three and allowing five earned runs on eight hits (two home runs).
The Diamondbacks have struck out at the 29th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being 10th in ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best.
As for bullpens, Arizona has the 25th-lowest FIP while Pittsburgh has the 12th-lowest.
Diamondbacks at Pirates pick, best bet
The amount of faith I have in Kelly is exactly how little I have in Heaney. It’s well within the range of outcomes that the O/U is cracked to the upside via his arm alone.
