Neither the Padres nor the Cardinals have began the second half well. San Diego is 3-3, while St. Louis is 1-5 and just hovering over .500.
The two teams face off in a four-game series beginning on Thursday, July 24 in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are -157 moneyline favorites, and the Padres are +129 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under eight runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Thursday’s Padres vs. Cardinals matchup.
Padres vs. Cardinals prediction
The Padres’ offense was dormant in their series against the Marlins. They lost two of three, scoring two, three and two runs in the three outings. It was quite disappointing as the Padres couldn’t figure much out, even against Sandy Alcantara, who has a 6.66 ERA through 104 innings.
Tonight’s pitching matchup should be more challenging as Sonny Gray takes the mound for St. Louis. The 35-year-old is coming off a terrible performance against the Diamondbacks, but he had been having a solid season prior to this game. He held a 3.50 ERA before the game, but it’s now at 4.04 after allowing eight earned runs on 11 hits in 3.1 innings.
There are two major uncertainties for tonight’s game: the Padres’ offense and which version of Gray shows up. San Diego made Alcantara look excellent despite heavily struggling all season, so perhaps the quiet bats continue and aid Gray. Or, it’s possible that Gray slips up once again and has another bad outing.
This, however, only accounts for one side of the game. The Cardinals are 1-5 to start the second half of the season with series losses to the Diamondbacks and Rockies. Similarly, the offense has been limited, scoring at least four runs just twice and being shut out in Colorado once.
Yu Darvish will start for the Padres tonight in just his fourth appearance of the season. The 38-year-old dealt with an elbow injury, which kept him sidelined until July. He hasn’t been overly inspiring in his three outings, allowing two, four and three earned runs over 3.2, 4.2 and 5.0 innings, respectively.
The Padres are ramping up his workload as they hope he can return to All-Star form. He shouldn’t pitch more than six innings, which means San Diego’s bullpen will take over. This unit has the best reliever ERA in the majors this season.
The Cardinals will need to score early runs against Darvish because the bullpen should keep things tidy.
Padres vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
The Cardinals are just 1-5 to start the second half, but they’ve been on the road for all six games. They return home for a four-game set against the Padres.
A home series is sometimes all a team needs to reset their mojo. Gray, especially, will enjoy being at home as he’s a 2.84 ERA pitcher in Busch Stadium compared to a 5.84 ERA pitcher on the road. His last outing was a fluke, and he should get back on track against a Padres’ team that’s not scoring many runs lately.
While the Padres are struggling on offense, they can still limit their opponents to low-scoring games. Darvish should have a short outing as he’s still working his way back from an elbow injury, which will put the majors’ best bullpen in charge.
Cardinals moneyline is a bit too steep at -157, so parlaying it with under eight runs at -106 is the way to go. The parlay yields +198 value.