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Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, pick for Friday 7/25/25

Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, pick for Friday 7/25/25

Sports Betting Picks MLB DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

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By: Stan Son

This is the opener of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting Arizona Diamondbacks.

Ryne Nelson is scheduled to pitch for Arizona while Mike Burrows is slated to start for Pittsburgh.

Diamondbacks at Pirates prediction, preview

Ryne Nelson throws hard, averaging 95.5 mph on the fastball. He is not, and has never been a prolific strikeout pitcher in the majors. He’s currently sporting a 20.4% strikeout rate and has a career-high of 23.2%. He allows hard contact, as the average exit velocity is 91 mph and the hard hit rate is 42.3%, but the flyball rate is 37.9% and he’s allowed only nine home runs. The BABIP is only .233, but the FIP is only slightly higher than the 3.52 ERA at 3.88.

Nelson has struggled on the road, allowing seven of the nine home runs. Other than that, he’s been split neutral.

Nelson has gone at least six innings four times, with three of those in the last four games. Nelson did begin the season in the bullpen. He did face Pittsburgh back in May, going 6.2 innings, striking out four and did not walk anyone or allow an earned run in four hits.

Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates have struck out at the sixth-highest rate while having the 30th-best ISO. The wOBA is 29th-best in MLB.

Mike Burrows also throws hard, averaging 95.1 mph on the fastball. Unlike Nelson, the strikeout rate is higher at 23.6%. The control isn’t as good, though, as the walk rate is 9.4%, close to two percent higher. Burrows also gets hit hard with a 45.9% hard hit rate and 11.3% barrel rate. He’s allowed eight home runs in 46 innings. The ERA and FIP are identical at 4.7.

Burrows has been split neutral.

Burrows has yet to go at least six innings. He’s allowed more than three earned runs four times. He faced Arizona way back in May, going 3.1 innings, striking out two, walking two and allowed four earned runs on five hits.

The Diamondbacks have struck out at the 19th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being first in ISO. The wOBA is best.

As for bullpens, Arizona has the 25th-lowest FIP while Pittsburgh has the 12th-lowest.

Diamondbacks at Pirates pick, best bet

I’m not feeling either pitcher and think the offenses, especially the Arizona side, can get busy.

Best Bet: Over 9 Runs (-108)

Stan Son
Stan joined DraftKings in December of 2020. It was a glorious time, except for that whole COVID thing, when we got Madden streams and boisterous bat flips from the KBO. I was brought on board to bring some West Coast flavor. I especially love hoops, and most of my content is in that arena. When I walk along the beach, strumming my guitar, the beat that I hear is not one of crashing waves. No, it is the beat of the ball bouncing off the hardwood with highs provided by the squeaks of the sneakers. Ball is life.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.