It was a tale of two seasons for the Golden State Warriors in 2024/25. After being mired in mediocrity, they were on the outside looking in of the playoff picture going into the trade deadline. Then Jimmy Butler arrived. At 25-26 before the trade, they were a play-in team at best. Golden State rattled off a 24-7 record to close the year, securing the top spot in the play-in and the seventh seed in the playoffs. Playoff Jimmy led them to a first round series upset over the Houston Rockets, before injuries did them in against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference semis.
As NBA futures markets go live on DraftKings Sportsbook, we’re taking a look at the Warriors’ win total projections. Read on to see which direction bettors should target.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN’s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Golden State Warriors 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
One team has not added a single player this offseason: the Golden State Warriors. The Jonathan Kuminga restricted free agency debacle has left them in a very uncertain position. But we can make some critical assumptions.
It’s being widely reported that Al Horford will sign with the Warriors with the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception. After losing Kevon Looney, Mike Dunleavy Jr. nets an upgrade by adding a legitimate stretch big who can defend at a high level. It goes without saying Horford’s playoff experience is immense, and he adds another important veteran to the squad.
De’Anthony Melton will be returning to the Warriors on a one-year veteran’s minimum. After signing a one-year deal with Golden State this past season, he was shut down with a shoulder injury after six games, and subsequently traded to Brooklyn as part of the Dennis Schröder deal. But whew, those six games. Melton had a +11.3 net rating in 121 total minutes, knocking down shots and moving the ball well to pair with his excellent defense. His potential efficacy comes down to Golden State’s main issue: health.
Let’s assume Horford is going to the Bay and starting. He just turned 39 years old. Steph Curry will turn 38 in the upcoming season. Jimmy Butler turns 36 in September. Draymond Green turns 36 during the season as well. In a demanding Western Conference, you can’t afford to take many rest days. It’s a lot of pressure on four guys who are closer to 40 than 30 to stay healthy.
You could argue that Golden State got the benefit of injury luck during the regular season. Though Steph and Jimmy’s injuries in the playoff derailed the year, those two were quite healthy during the 24/25 season. Curry played 70 games, Butler missed only one game after the trade, and Draymond Green played 68 games. They’d be over the moon to get 60+ games from all three.
The depth here is good. Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody performed exceptionally after the deadline. Buddy Hield was a killer in the playoffs. Quinten Post is a legitimate stretch 5. Melton, if healthy, is a real impact bench piece. And they’ll have Jonathan Kuminga or whoever he is traded for. It’s a very good team if healthy; people seem to forget they played at a 65-win pace with Butler in the lineup.
But their free agency remains in flux. Their core pieces are old, and nobody can replicate Steph/Jimmy/Draymond if any of them were to miss significant time. It leaves us with a puzzling total.
Golden State Warriors projected win total: Best bets, predictions
I am a believer in the depth of this squad. If they can keep the stars healthy, they’re going to smash this total. If one of them misses time, they are sunk. With confidence that trainer Rick Celebrini can work his butt off to keep them on the floor, I would bet the over at 46.5 wins.
If the injuries are too scary for you, I’d move the slider down a bit to take the under. If you move them to under 43.5 wins, you can get them at +175 odds. My gut tells me that the Golden State will be either well over or well under this total. It would take a strange set of circumstances for them to be right around that total. So move those sliders accordingly.
