Series finales here on a Wednesday, with plenty of day baseball. All the drippiest players are going to be catching some serious sunlight on the diamond today, and we’re just trying to cash in on some of the evening slate. In a short time, I’ll link previews/predictions up for the Phillies vs. Red Sox, Rays vs. White Sox, and Rangers vs. Athletics games tonight. Having said that, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets today surrounding my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Braves -1.5 (+125) vs. Giants
The Braves are primed to cash on the run line behind ace Spencer Strider against a struggling Justin Verlander. Strider has quietly been dominant despite Atlanta’s underwhelming record, allowing three-or-fewer runs in eight straight starts. In fact, over his last eight outings, Strider boasts a 2.77 ERA while consistently keeping the Braves in games. His elite strikeout ability (28% K-rate) and improving control should overpower a Giants lineup that ranks in the bottom third of MLB in OPS.
Meanwhile, 42-year-old Verlander has shown serious regression. He’s winless (0–8) with a bloated 4.99 ERA on the season, and his recent form is even worse—14 earned runs and 23 hits allowed over his last 11⅔ innings. The Giants have lost 12 of Verlander’s 16 starts, often by multiple runs, a sign of poor run support and Verlander’s declining effectiveness.
Atlanta’s offense, while inconsistent, still features power threats (Matt Olson, Austin Riley) capable of capitalizing on Verlander’s 1.51 WHIP and diminished velocity. Notably, San Francisco is under .500 on the road and has dropped seven of 10 overall, indicating weak form. With Strider dealing (3.59 ERA, 11.7 K/9) and backed by a rested bullpen, the Braves should secure a comfortable win.
Atlanta has covered the run line in four of the last five games when favored at home after a win, reflecting their tendency to pile on runs in favorable spots. Look for Strider to rack up double-digit punchouts and Atlanta’s bats to pad the lead late against a Giants bullpen that’s been taxed recently.
Braves -1.5 (+125), expecting Atlanta to win by 2+ runs behind a stellar outing from Strider and an aging Verlander’s continued woes.
Blue Jays (+120) vs. Yankees
Getting plus money on one of baseball’s hottest teams at home is too good to pass up. The Blue Jays are 11–1 in their last 12 home games and have been on a tear since late June, going 13–4 in July. In contrast, the Yankees have dropped five of seven and are just 1–5 in their last six meetings against Toronto. This matchup features a marquee pitching duel: Max Fried (11–3, 2.43 ERA) for New York and Chris Bassitt (10–4, 3.89 ERA) for Toronto.
While Fried’s season numbers are strong, there are signs of vulnerability – he’s surrendered 10 earned runs on 15 hits over his last 14 innings, indicating some regression or fatigue. Bassitt, meanwhile, has been lights-out at Rogers Centre, posting a sterling 2.53 ERA in 64 home innings. Toronto’s balanced lineup should support him; the Jays boast a deep offense with six players in double-digit homers and a .760 team OPS at home. They’ve already shown they can handle elite lefties – they knocked around Carlos Rodón earlier in this series, and will approach Fried with a solid game plan.
On the other side, the Yankees’ offense is heavily dependent on Aaron Judge (MLB-best 36 HR, .346 AVG), but one man carrying a lineup can falter against quality pitching. The Jays have held New York to just 3.3 runs per game in their head-to-heads this year, leveraging their strong bullpen (top-5 in AL ERA). Additionally, Toronto’s defense and baserunning have been crisp during their hot streak, minimizing mistakes.
With Bassitt’s consistency and the Jays’ evident momentum (only four losses since June 29), Toronto has a greater than 50% win probability despite the underdog odds. In a tight divisional showdown, I’ll back the Blue Jays moneyline (+118) to prevail, as Toronto’s home dominance and all-around form tilt this game in their favor.
Padres vs. Marlins o7.5 total runs (-120)
When two high-profile pitchers are underperforming, the door opens for a sneaky over. Dylan Cease (4.64 ERA) faces Sandy Alcantara (7.14 ERA) in a matchup of former Cy Young-caliber arms who have struggled mightily in 2025. The total is set at a modest 7.5, likely due to name recognition, but the underlying numbers scream offense. Alcantara has been a shell of his old self after returning from injury – his ERA north of 7.00 comes with a 1.65 WHIP and diminished velocity, and he’s managed only four quality starts all year.
San Diego’s lineup should finally break out here. The Padres rank just 25th in runs scored, but they showed signs of life with a late rally in yesterday’s 4–3 loss and have plenty of talent (Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts) that can punish mistakes. Alcantara has allowed hard contact at an elevated rate, and San Diego’s patience (top-10 walk rate) could lead to traffic on the bases and crooked numbers. On the other side, Miami’s offense quietly tallied 11 hits in Game 2 and has averaged 4.5 runs over the past week.
They’ll face Cease, who owns a 1.46 HR/9 and hasn’t pitched well in July (ERA near 6.00 this month). Cease’s tendency to lose command (over 4 BB/9) combined with Miami’s contact hitting (ninth in team batting average) means the Marlins can chip in a few runs as well. Both bullpens have been worked hard in this series, and neither ranks in the top 10 in ERA, so late-inning runs are on the table. Notably, Miami’s last six home games have gone under in five, which has kept this total low—but that trend looks due to snap given these pitchers’ form. I see each team reaching double-digit hit totals. Ride the o7.5 (-108) as the best bet, expecting a 6–4 type game with both shaky starters yielding runs and the offenses capitalizing.
