Major League Baseball has a spread-out schedule this Wednesday, as teams get ready to shift to new series for the upcoming weekend. After some early games and four games in a wave just after 3:00 p.m. ET, five more are on the schedule under the lights. Looking at the ten teams in action at night, a few strong home run props stand out as good plays if you’re looking to swing for the fences with some long-shot props to get you through this humpday. After examining the environments, matchups, splits and current form, my top home run props for Wednesday are from Kyle Manzardo, George Springer, and Josh Jung.
Just a quick reminder before we point to the flagpole and call our shots for Monday night—all home run props are, by nature, long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters can’t count on going deep in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, there’s never much certainty even if every single factor seems to indicate a home run is coming up. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their extreme volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do hit. It also makes sense to blend these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at a small unit size in round robins, which boosts their ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Monday night.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyle Manzardo to record 1+ home runs (+360)
The Guardians are in a good spot at home against the Orioles, who will activate Zach Eflin (back) from the injured list to make the start on Wednesday. After their 10-game losing streak, the Guardians have bounced back with 10 wins in their last 12 games, and they can close out a sweep of the O’s with a win on Wednesday.
Manzardo is only hitting .220 on the season, but he has smashed 16 homers, including three in his last five contests. Manzardo has a 52.4% hard-hit rate over his last eight games and a 40.7% hard-hit rate on the season. He homered on Monday in the first game of this series.
Eflin has been injured multiple times this season, and when he has been available, he has been very hittable. In 62 innings across 12 starts, Eflin has given up 16 homers. Left-handed hitters like Manzardo have hit 14 of those 16 homers, with a .347 batting average and .452 wOBA. Ten of those 16 homers have come in his road starts, where he has a 6.25 ERA and a .397 wOBA against him.
Manzardo has hit 12 of his 16 homers against righties, so the matchup puts him in a juicy spot to deliver some green in the first of our home run props this Wednesday.
George Springer to record 1+ home runs (+600)
Springer Dingers have made a big-time resurgence this summer, as the Blue Jays’ outfielder has connected on 17 homers in 95 games. That’s after hitting just 19 homers in 145 games last season. He and the Blue Jays are in a tough matchup against Max Fried and the Yankees, but that raises the value in Springer’s home run props all the way to +600.
I also highlighted Springer in my top MLB DFS plays of the day. He is 3-for-9 with a homer in his career against Fried and has six homers already in his 17 games in July. Springer homered on Sunday against the Giants, but hasn’t gone yard yet in this series against New York.
Of his 17 homers, 11 have come at home, where he is hitting .300 with a .410 wOBA. He has hit six homers (35%) against lefties in just 27% of his plate appearances.
While Fried is definitely a quality arm, he has given up seven homers in 11 road starts and 11 runs in 14 innings in his last three games. One of those games was in Toronto, where the Jays reached him for four runs in six innings.
Even though it’s not the juicy, homer-happy matchups I usually try to attack, the odds for Springer to go yard bring just too much value for me to ignore this Wednesday night.
Josh Jung to record 1+ home runs (+450)
Long-time readers may remember when Jung was in my picks before his rookie season and almost every day throughout his impressive 2023 campaign. Last year, Jung lost most of the year due to a wrist injury and was sent back to Triple-A to work on a few things earlier this year.
He returned to the Rangers after the All-Star break, and homered in Monday’s win over the A’s.
Jung is up to nine homers in 77 games this season in the majors after hitting two homers in his eight games with the Round Rock Express. His batting average and chase rate have been the issues for him this season, but his power production has still been there.
Four of his nine home runs this season have come in his 81 at-bats against lefties, whom he is hitting .247 against with a .300 wOBA. In his big 2023 season, he feasted on southpaws, hitting .327 with a .418 wOBA in the split that year.
On Wednesday, he’ll have a good matchup against lefty JP Sears, who has allowed three homers in his last two games and 15 over his last 11 starts. Sears has given up 21 homers on the season, and right-handed hitters like Jung have 19 of those homers and a .357 wOBA.
Since he’s so recently back from the minors, Jung’s home run props still come at good value, and I’m ready to go back to backing Jung on the regular for right-handed power in the Rangers’ lineup.
