With the MLB Trade Deadline just over a week away, we’re starting to be on high alert for #HugWatch. You know, when a player gets traded mid-game, so they just start hugging all their teammates in the dugout?
I doubt that happens in today’s tilt between the Royals and the Cubs, yet there is a decent chance that this is Seth Lugo’s final start in a Kansas City uniform, as the RHP is set to be a free agent at season’s end and is one of the more highly coveted starters on the market.
Will Lugo make one final great impression for opposing GMs? Let’s preview today’s 2:20 p.m. ET interleague matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Because Seth Lugo lacks overwhelming strikeout upside, he’s always going to be a pitcher that’s outperforming his expected statistics when things are going well. That said, Lugo’s 4.71 xERA is quite a bit higher than his pristine 2.94 ERA in 2025. Again, this isn’t out of the ordinary for the right-hander, and Lugo’s 3.17 ERA dating back to the beginning of 2023 is a large enough sample where I trust the results; but I’d be lying if I said that the flags weren’t just a little bit redder than usual with the veteran starter. Among qualified pitchers, Lugo’s .244 opponent BABIP is the fourth-lowest mark in MLB. That includes a BABIP of .184 with runners on base, which is likely why Lugo’s 86.3% strand rate is the league’s second-highest qualified mark. Even if you consider Seth Lugo to be one of the most “clutch” arms on Earth, these figures still aren’t sustainable.
Also working against Lugo on Wednesday — and Colin Rea for that matter — is that it’s going to be a hot and humid day at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out. So, if you were wondering why this tilt has the highest non-Coors total for this slate on the DraftKings Sportsbook (10.5), now you know. The Cubs are simply one of the most dangerous lineups in MLB, as well. Chicago sits third in baseball in total home runs (150), which has translated to the league’s second-highest marks in slugging percentage (.446) and wRC+ (116). This is a team that can take advantage of the elements.
Speaking of Rea, while the veteran RHP struggled in the latter-half of May and through June, things have been looking better as of late. In his past three starts — a span of 18.2 innings — Rea has not surrendered more than a single earned run per contest. Still, on the whole, Rea owns an ugly 4.93 xERA in 2025. He comes into this matchup in possession of a 10th percentile opponent expected batting average (.285) and a 23rd percentile opponent barrel rate (10.2%). Home runs have also been a major issue for the 35-year-old the past three seasons, which does not bode well with Wednesday’s conditions at Wrigley. I’m not very optimistic for a fourth straight great appearance.
Royals vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Vinnie Pasquantino 2+ Total Bases (-110)
Pasquantino has an .830 OPS against RHPs away from Kauffman Stadium in 2025. Rea is allowing opposing LHBs to hit .304 with a .382 wOBA.
