After spending a few weeks across the pond, the PGA TOUR is headed to a course with plenty of ponds, streams, lakes and rivers in play at the 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities has water in play on almost every hole, which leads to a wide variety of scoring results for each hole. With such volatile outcomes, it should be a very fun week of golf. Let’s take a look at the Tournament Groups available on DraftKings Sportsbook for a fun way to find some of your golf best bets this week.
Just to be sure we’re all on the same page, there are nine groups set up on the tournament groups section of The 3M Open page of DraftKings Sportsbook. To win these groups, you must select the lowest scorer for the entire tournament from the five players available. Dead heat rules apply in the case of a tie.
It’s not an elite field this week but there are plenty of fun storylines to follow from the fringes of the PGA TOUR as players look to battle their way into the top 70 in the FedExCup Standings and claim a spot in the playoffs that start soon. Picking from the five players in a group is much easier than selecting the winner from the entire field but still comes at very favorable plus-money odds. Let’s pinpoint some golf best bets from the tournament groups this week.
Group E Winner: Alex Smalley (+350)
In Group E, Smalley will take on favorite Kevin Yu (+300), Luke Clanton (+320), Matt Wallace (+350, and Rico Hoey (+350). Smalley hasn’t had the best recent results, but his sharp approach game should lead to strong results on this water-heavy course.
Smalley missed the cut at the Rocket Classic and the John Deere Classic, but he put together a solid week at the Genesis Scottish Open to finish T34 after four straight rounds of 70 or better.
Before the Rocket Classic, he finished T13 at the RBC Canadian Open and had a T28 at the PGA Championship with a T5 at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic. Earlier in the season, he finished T18 at PGA National and T14 at TPC Sawgrass. He seems to do well on courses with lots of water on Florida-style layouts, which this week’s venue plays similarly to even though it is located on the other side of the country.
Last year, Smalley finished T12 at the 3M Open, and he returns this week sitting at No. 74 in the FedExCup standings. Strong results in the next two weeks could push him into the playoffs. While he doesn’t seem to do well in complete birdie-fests like the Rocket and the Deere, he does excel when shot-making is at a premium.
Over the last six months, Smalley ranks ninth in the field in Total Strokes Gained and 14th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, setting him up for success this week.
The other golfers in this group come in with a variety of issues in form and course fit, so I think Smalley stands out as the best play of the bunch even though his odds are tied for the longest in the group.
Group C Winner: Michael Thorbjornsen (+300)
Thorbjornsen has battled some injuries throughout the season, but he has played well enough when healthy that I am ready to back him against Si Woo Kim (+280), Kurt Kitayama (+350), Emiliano Grillo (+360) and Sungjae Im (+360).
The 23-year-old former Stanford standout finished in the top 25 in each of his last three tournaments after having to withdraw from the Charles Schwab Challenge and missing about a month with a wrist injury. He returned with a T4 at the Rocket Classic, chased that with a T21 at the John Deere Classic, then finished T14 at the ISCO Championship before taking last week off.
Earlier in the season, he finished T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and T4 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. After joining the PGA TOUR as a rookie last year after finishing No. 1 in the 2024 PGA TOUR University Ranking, he is at No. 86 in the FedExCup Standings with a real shot at the playoffs with a good finish the next two weeks.
Thorbjornsen ranks fourth in the entire field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee in the last six months, and he has also been even stronger lately, ranking second in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the last 16 rounds.
He’s one of my best bets this week to take down the other five golfers in this group, although both Grillo and Kim do come in with momentum and more extensive histories. However, Grillo did miss the cut at the Barracuda Championship last week while Kim is coming back after two weeks in the UK, which finished with a missed cut at the Open.
He’s a longshot to win the week and an expensive play in DFS fantasy lineups, but he’s a strong play in this group since posting another strong finish will likely be enough to outpace the rest of this group.
Group D Winner: Cameron Champ (+400)
In Group D, Champ has the longest odds of the five players in the group, but I think he’s a great play against Akshay Bhatia (+220), Adam Scott (+320), Max Homa (+330) and Keith Mitchell (+360). Bhatia and Scott are just getting back from two weeks in Scotland and Ireland, while Mitchell played the Scottish Open but didn’t qualify for The Open Championship. Champ and Homa stayed and played stateside, which could work to their advantage.
Champ has an exceptional track record at TPC Twin Cities and brings the kind of driver-focused game that gives him a chance to contend on this track every year. He won the 3M Open in 2021 for his third career victory on the PGA TOUR and followed that up by finishing T16 in 2022 and a T12 last year.
He comes back to this familiar track with good form despite missing the cut after a bad second round at the Barracuda Championship. Champ was on a nice run going before that MC with four straight top-30 finishes, including a season-best T9 at the RBC Canadian Open. Before the Barracuda, he posted 12 rounds under 70 in his previous 16 rounds. In the last 16 rounds, Champ leads the entire field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and ranks third in Total Strokes Gained.
Champ has only played 10 events on the PGA TOUR this season while also teeing it up for eight Korn Ferry Tour events. He will look to improve his status for next season with a couple of big tournaments the next few weeks while likely playing into the fall as well.
The rest of this group definitely has the potential to start fast and go low. However, they don’t have the kind of sustained history that Champ has here. Mitchell has a pair of top-five finishes, but Scott and Homa are making their debut here while Bhatia finished T64 last year.
With the rest of the talent in this group, Champ isn’t a lock, but I love the value he brings at +400 enough to make him one of my best bets from the tournament groups this week.
