Because most of today’s MLB slate featured matinee games, it’s a small but mighty offering for tonight’s featured DFS contest at DraftKings, with just five games on tap. Still, there are plenty of good matchups, especially the 7:07 p.m. ET clash between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays that will help determine control of the AL East.
Since there’s a smaller slate of options, my pitcher rankings are smaller than they usually are. Here are my three favorite pitchers from tonight’s quintet of games.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Bat Flip [$25K to 1st].
1. Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies ($8,500)
Though Luzardo has been somewhat overshadowed this season by his teammates Zack Wheeler and Christopher Sánchez, the Peruvian has also been extremely solid this season. He pitched at a borderline Cy Young level for the first 11 starts of the season, carrying a 2.15 ERA and averaging 22.25 FPTS per game at that point. Then, he had one of the worst two-game stretches of any high-quality starter, conceding 20 runs and 21 hits in 5.2 innings across his May 31 and June 5 starts (-15.4 FPTS per game). But in his seven starts since then, he’s been back to solid form, pitching to a 3.96 ERA and reaching the 30-FPT threshold thrice.
I like his chances of having a good performance against the Boston Red Sox, whose momentum was stunted by the All-Star break. Boston posted a 10-game winning streak headed into the showcase, a stretch across which it slashed .299/.355/.528, but it’s struggled to get anything going since, dropping four of five games and posting the league’s second-lowest OPS. In part, that’s because of the pitchers it has faced — Colin Rea, Shota Imanaga, Wheeler, and Sánchez is a tough stretch — but the Red Sox also strike out at the fifth-highest rate, and punchouts are good for fantasy.
2. Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays ($7,000)
Though the Rays’ four-game sweep at the hands of Boston relegated them to fourth in the division, they still trail the Red Sox by just half a game for the final Wild Card spot in the AL and have won three of their five games since the All-Star break. Bradley has been a big part of that effort, offering six innings of three-hit, shutout (27.1-FPT) ball as Tampa Bay made a statement last Friday in its first game after the break with an 11-1 win over the Baltimore Orioles. The 24-year-old flamethrower has recorded 18 or more FPTS in three of his last five games, giving him excellent value for his salary.
With all credit to the Chicago White Sox, who have been red-hot since the All-Star break, it’ll take a lot more than just a five-game sample size for me to be convinced that they aren’t the worst offense in the league. All season, Chicago has struggled, posting the league’s second-worst OPS overall, the third-worst mark on the road, and the worst mark in night games. It’s also a good matchup for Bradley, whose biggest weakness is his 32nd percentile whiff rate. The White Sox, despite solid plate discipline, have contacted nothing but air at the 11th-highest frequency.
3. Max Fried, New York Yankees ($9,800)
I’m not going to overthink it: despite a poor last start before the All-Star break, in which he gave up four runs (three earned), six hits, and three walks (-0.65 FPTS) in three innings against the Chicago Cubs, Fried is one of the best pitchers in baseball. New York’s prized offseason acquisition has topped the 25-FPT threshold six different times this season, leads the AL in wins, and ranks in the top 10 in ERA, WHIP, and FIP. He’s been exceptional at avoiding hard contact, hasn’t issued many walks, and has induced lots of grounders for the league’s seventh-best defense to make a play.
Fried remains a solid fantasy option in an otherwise weak slate, even against a Toronto Blue Jays team that has gotten to him for five runs over 12 innings (11.6 FPTS per game) so far this season. He’s been slightly better on the road than at Yankee Stadium, averaging 20.4 FPTS per game in enemy territory and 19.2 FPTS per game on friendly turf, and Rogers Centre has been (ever-so-slightly) a pitcher-friendly park this season. The only Statcast category in which Fried ranks below the 49th percentile is chase percentage, and the Blue Jays chase at the league’s ninth-highest rate.
