In the battle for European supremacy, just four nations remain, and they’re four of the biggest powerhouses on the continent. Tonight, reigning Euro champions England will take on Italy in one semifinal of the UEFA Women’s Euro Championships, with Germany set to face World Cup winners Spain tomorrow.
England and Italy will meet at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) at Stade de Genève in Switzerland. The Lionesses are -200 favorites to win the match in regular time at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Le Azzurre +500 and a draw +340. England is -425 to advance, and Italy is +275.
England vs. Italy prediction, pick
The Lionesses have had the more impressive run through the tournament so far, though neither side has quite matched Spain’s dominance. Both squads finished second in their group, though England managed dominant wins over both the Netherlands and Wales and dropped a narrow decision to France, while Portugal held Le Azzurre to a 1-1 draw and Spain pulled out a fairly comprehensive victory. Italy, the 13th-ranked nation in the FIFA Women’s World Ranking, then got a fairly friendly draw in the quarterfinals against 16th-ranked Norway, which topped an easy group featuring hosts Switzerland and fellow Nordic nations Iceland and Finland, while fifth-ranked England managed to knock out sixth-ranked Sweden on penalties.
The Lionesses have a star-studded squad. Attacking midfielder Lauren James is the younger sister of Chelsea captain Reece James and has led the Blues to four consecutive Women’s Super League titles. James, Ella Toone, and Georgia Stanway each have two goals through the first four matches of the competition, while Arsenal winger Alessia Russo leads the team with three assists. All in all, England has a balanced attack: 10 different players have found the netting, including Chelsea defender Lucy Bronze, who sparked the Lionesses’ late comeback against Sweden with a 79th-minute header and calmly slotted home the winner in the penalty shootout. If there’s any concern for England, it’s goalkeeper Hannah Hampton, who has just a 64.3% save percentage so far.
Le Azzurre have relied heavily on the magical right foot of Cristiana Girelli, who scored a wonderful curler from outside the box in the group stage against Portugal and bagged a brace against Norway to send her country to the semifinals. The 35-year-old has led Juventus to five Serie A titles in seven seasons, finishing as the division’s leading scorer twice, and she’s been a clinical finisher so far this tournament. Her Juventus teammate, Sofia Cantore, leads Italy with two assists, and their attacking partnership has been key for a team that has allowed just five goals in four matches, tied for the third-fewest in the competition. That can’t be attributed to Laura Giuliani, who has saved just seven of the 12 shots on target she’s faced, but Le Azzurre’s back line has forced opponents into the fourth-lowest average shot quality.
Though Italy’s veteran duo of Elena Linari and Cecilia Salvai could pose problems for the Lionesses, England’s attack is just that much better. Even Bronze and Alex Greenwood operate predominantly as wing-backs, and Leah Williamson is an attack-oriented center back as well. The Lionesses have controlled possession in every single match and recorded more expected goals in each of the last three, and they’re unlikely to get just four of their 18 shots on target like they did against Sweden. A 2-1 win for England sounds about right.
